Top Traders Unplugged

GM85: What If the Real Risk Isn’t Recession — But Reinvention? ft. Steven Bell

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Jul 30, 2025
Guest
Steven Bell
Steven Bell, recently retired chief economist and money manager, shares insights from his diverse experiences in the economic arena. He discusses how AI could pose greater risks than tariffs, revealing the complexities of modern labor dynamics. Bell emphasizes the evolving independence of the Federal Reserve and its implications on monetary policy. He also reflects on the impact of social media on market behavior and the challenges faced by investors, advocating for a nuanced understanding of macroeconomic trends.
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INSIGHT

Forecasting Economics Challenge Unchanged

  • The challenge of forecasting economics has not grown harder over time. - Market participants mostly predict what policymakers would do, sharing similar academic backgrounds.
INSIGHT

Social Media Splinters Market Consensus

  • Social media creates segmented herds, fragmenting consensus perspectives. - Institutional markets still herd around common major sources, maintaining global integration.
INSIGHT

Tariffs Persist with Economic Impact

  • U.S. tariffs around 15% are here to stay, impacting growth and uncertainty. - Many tariffs have been absorbed so far by exporters and importers, with more pass-through expected.
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