Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who’s watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell
05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed?
10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days?
13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets?
16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it
21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data
24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity
28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation
32:15 - Do deficits even matter?
36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be?
44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell?
45:11 - An AI productivity boom
49:14 - Bell's outlook for the economy
56:32 - Navigating the consensus view on the dollar as an economist
01:01:06 - Macro advise for other investors
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