The Thinking Leader Episode 002: Using PreMortem Analysis to Make Better Decisions with Gary A. Klein
Jun 28, 2021
In this engaging discussion, Dr. Gary A. Klein, a cognitive psychologist and expert in decision-making, shares insights on his innovative PreMortem Analysis tool designed to help leaders anticipate potential failures. He emphasizes the importance of mental simulation in making decisions, drawing lessons from firefighters' intuitive choices. Gary introduces ShadowBox Training, a method to expose teams to expert reasoning and enhance adaptability in crises. He also advocates for fostering a culture of curiosity over blame to improve decision-making skills.
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Pattern Matching Then Mental Simulation
- Experienced responders use rapid pattern matching to recognize situations and select a plausible course of action quickly.
- They then run mental simulations to check that option against expected developments before committing.
The Miracle On The Hudson Example
- Chesley Sullenberger hit geese, lost engine power, and mentally rejected returning to LaGuardia after quick simulations.
- He iterated alternatives until the Hudson landing gave a "ghost of a chance," and it succeeded.
Act Quickly But Stay Flexible
- Avoid paralysis by analysis during crises; don't wait for 90% confidence before acting.
- Adopt a flexible "hedge trimming" approach so you can adapt goals and plans as you learn.
