Rational Security: The “Caracas Like a Hurricane” Special Venezuela Edition

Jan 8, 2026

Guest

Molly Roberts

In this discussion, Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett, and Molly Roberts dive into the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, exploring its implications and legality. They analyze the rapid operation aimed at capturing Nicolás Maduro and the mixed motives behind it. The conversation touches on the unique challenges of prosecuting a head of state, the risks of U.S. actions signaling strategies to adversaries like Russia and China, and the complex legal landscape surrounding Maduro's indictment. It's a captivating exploration of national security, foreign policy, and the unpredictable nature of U.S. intervention.

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INSIGHT

Limited Strike, Unclear Strategy

The Venezuela operation combined limited military force with political aims rather than a full-scale occupation.
Benjamin Wittes and Scott R. Anderson argue the strategy lacks coherent long-term planning and obvious leverage.

INSIGHT

Converging Incentives Drove The Decision

Multiple internal actors likely pushed different motives that converged on the Maduro removal.
Natalie Orpett suggests DOJ, defense, and political actors each had distinct incentives shaping the decision.

INSIGHT

Audacity Without Full Commitment

The operation was audacious in appearance but conservative in commitment and risk exposure.
Scott R. Anderson notes it was a snatch-and-grab with preemptive strikes to reduce U.S. casualty risk.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett, and Molly Roberts for a special deep-dive into the intervention in Venezuela, including:

“A Hop, Skip, and Jump Across the Rubicon.” This past weekend, the Trump administration took the step that Trump has been threatening for months: he deployed special operations to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and bring him to the United States for criminal prosecution. The targeted operation was only hours long and resulted in no American fatalities, though more than 70 people in Venezuela were reportedly killed. The Trump administration has described it as a “law enforcement” operation. But what was it really? And where did he get the authority to do it?
“A Truly Extraordinary Rendition.” By Monday, Maduro and his wife were in New York being arraigned on an array of drug- and weapons-related conspiracy charges. But prosecuting a head of state—albeit one not recognized by the United States—presents certain unique challenges. How should we expect the criminal case to proceed?
“Running in Place.” President Trump has asserted that he and his advisers are now going to “run” Venezuela. But he’s left Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, in place, in lieu of the opposition movement the United States and many other countries have recognized as Venezuela’s legitimate government. Trump and his advisers seem intent on dictating terms to Venezuela through the “leverage” provided them by the ongoing quarantine over Venezuela’s oil, and potentially the threat of additional military action. But can this light-touch strategy succeed?

In object lessons, (notably Chicagoan) Natalie delights in her long-standing admiration of The New Yorker with Netflix’s documentary “The New Yorker at 100.” Molly approaches Trump’s takeover of D.C. golf courses with a pitch for Knotty by Nature’s wooden putters. Scott honors the 5th anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol with a recommendation of Ellie Silverman’s moving profile of Nathan Tate in the Washington Post. And Ben honors the same anniversary with both a revisiting of Lawfare's narrative podcast series The Aftermath, and, relatedly, a surprise interview by Holly Berkley Fletcher with one of the attack’s most infamous perpetrators.

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