Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst specializing in mortgage and real estate trends, shares his insights on the impact of recent tariff announcements and job data. He discusses how tariffs could affect inflation, consumer prices, and job security in a volatile economy. The conversation also covers the relationship between mortgage rates and consumer sentiment, the intricate connection between labor data and employment rates, and the challenges faced by builders amid rising costs, all framed within the chaotic current economic landscape.
Implementing significant tariffs may raise consumer prices and complicate the economic landscape, affecting inflation expectations and interest rates.
Despite deteriorating consumer sentiment about the economy, lower mortgage rates are sustaining demand in the housing market, highlighting the importance of interest rates over perceptions.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on the Economy
The discussion highlights the potential consequences of implementing significant tariffs, particularly on the automotive industry, which could result in increased consumer prices. Despite President Trump's warnings to the auto companies not to raise prices, the skepticism remains about whether they will comply when facing higher costs due to tariffs. This situation complicates the economic landscape, as rising prices could lead to a shift in inflation expectations from the Federal Reserve, ultimately impacting interest rates and consumer behavior. With bond yields falling and mortgage rates slightly lowering, the balance between managing inflation and supporting economic growth becomes increasingly delicate.
Consumer Sentiment and Housing Market Trends
Consumer sentiment regarding the economy appears to be deteriorating, yet there is a noticeable improvement in purchase application data for housing, attributed to lower mortgage rates. The lower interest rates are helping to sustain demand in the housing market, despite negative survey data reflecting overall economic pessimism. As consumer confidence remains shaky, the dynamics of the housing market continue to depend largely on interest rates rather than perceptions of economic stability. This situation underscores the complexity of housing demand, where rate fluctuations play a more crucial role than consumer sentiment in shaping market activity.
Labor Market Dynamics and Job Loss Implications
The podcast delves into the complexities of the labor market, noting that recent actions to lay off federal workers could lead to lower consumer demand overall. This reduction in workforce directly affects job openings and claims data, creating potential downward pressure on economic growth. Despite an increase in joblessness among certain sectors, the prevailing jobless claims data has remained historically low, indicating that significant recessionary trends may not yet be evident. As the economy navigates these labor shifts, the Federal Reserve's approach to managing inflation expectations will be critical in determining future job market stability.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about what to expect this week from big tariff announcements and jobs data.
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.