The Investor's Guide to China: China Consumer (#22)
Jun 20, 2023
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The podcast discusses China's economic rebound and the role of the Chinese consumer in powering the recovery. It explores the shift in consumer behavior post-COVID, the demand for gold jewelry in China, and opportunities in the China consumer market. The podcast also touches on the entrepreneurial spirit, opportunities in private markets, and similarities with Japan. It highlights the strong consumer theme in China and reflects on China's recovery and investment opportunities.
The Chinese consumer was expected to underpin and power the economic recovery, but consumer confidence, especially in the mid-range segment, is a concern.
Regional variations in the recovery and consumer confidence exist, with cities like Hefei showcasing strong growth and serving as case studies for successful property sector management and driving consumer confidence.
Deep dives
Consumer Confidence and Recovery
The podcast discusses the mixed messages regarding consumer confidence and the overall recovery of the Chinese economy. Despite the Chinese economic rebound being slower than anticipated, there is still positivity towards the recovery of the consumer sector. Consumer confidence is a concern, particularly within the mid-range consumer segment, although there is still potential for positive growth. The consumer segment is seen as an opportunity for various sectors, including discount retailers and the property market. With excess savings and a desire for quality growth, certain sectors like bottled mineral water and jewelry are expected to thrive.
Regional Variations and Market Opportunities
The recovery in China is not uniform across all regions and sectors. Cities like Hefei showcase strong growth and excellent management, with a focus on new technology industries like electric vehicles. These cities serve as case studies for successful property sector management and driving consumer confidence. However, there are variations across China, with slower growth in some lower-tier cities. Despite these variations, there are numerous opportunities for investment, particularly in industries driven by urbanization, consolidation, and increased penetration. Financial services, including insurance, are also expected to benefit from rising disposable income and demand for protection.
Capital Return and Investment Opportunities
The podcast emphasizes the importance of capital return for investment opportunities in China. Chinese companies are increasingly implementing capital return strategies, including dividends and buybacks. This trend is particularly notable among tech companies and financial institutions. Additionally, the private markets in China offer value opportunities for investors, as funding needs are rising, and the private space has experienced a correction, making it an attractive option. Sectors like the auto industry, particularly the supply chain and advertising, present opportunities for investment. Despite concerns about oversupply, opportunities exist in specific segments like bottled mineral water and senior nutrition.
Consumer Trends and Future Outlook
The podcast explores various consumer trends and their implications for the future of the Chinese consumer market. People's spending habits are shifting towards experiences rather than goods, which impacts the recovery of certain sectors but does not disrupt the overall structural growth of consumption in China. Companies that can provide the right experiences and value to Chinese consumers are poised for success. The outlook remains positive, with opportunities for stock-picking in areas like bottled mineral water, food and beverage, and luxury goods. The ongoing shift towards investment in EVs and gold jewelry highlights evolving consumer preferences and the potential for sustained growth.
China’s economic rebound hasn’t been as strong as many anticipated. But then, it’s not that surprising, as no one was expecting any major stimulus like in previous cycles, such as the global financial crisis. However, the Chinese consumer was really the one that was expected to underpin and power this recovery.
At the beginning of June, Fidelity’s global investment team embarked on a research trip to Shanghai and Hefei in eastern Anhui province where they met with dozens of companies. To get their on-the-ground insights, Catherine Yeung, Investment Director, and Marty Dropkin, Head of Equities, Asia Pacific, are joined in this episode by portfolio managers Dale Nicholls and Hyomi Jie.
With additional contributions from Eric Zhu, Research Associate, and Eric Tse, Investment Analyst.