If the 2024 Election Is So Important, Why Does It Feel So Boring?
Apr 12, 2024
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Political commentator Josh Barro, known for his newsletter 'Very Serious', discusses the paradox of the 2024 election being crucial yet surprisingly dull. He highlights voter disengagement and the overshadowed importance of key issues like abortion, inflation, and economic growth. Barro elaborates on the stark policy differences between Biden and Trump, particularly in immigration and fiscal strategies. Their chat dives into the roots of voter ambivalence and what a second Trump term might imply for America’s future.
The 2024 election presents stark differences in abortion policies between a Biden and Trump administration.
Trump's tax and spending policies could lead to inflation, contrasting with Biden's potential focus on higher spending.
A key difference in foreign policy lies in Trump's potential pro-Russia stance, contrasting with Biden's support for traditional Western alliances.
Deep dives
Abortion Policies Under Biden and Trump Administrations
The potential differences in abortion policies between a Biden and Trump administration are stark. A Trump administration is likely to interfere with women's access to abortions by using regulatory mechanisms like the FDA to restrict abortion pills' availability. This could significantly impact abortion rights if Trump is reelected.
Impact on Inflation Due to Tax and Spending Policy
The tax and spending policies under Trump could lead to inflation. His plan to extend tax cuts and reluctance to cut spending could result in inflationary pressures. In contrast, a Biden administration may not prioritize deficit reduction, potentially maintaining inflation due to higher spending.
Foreign Policy Differences on Russia and Ukraine
An important divergence in foreign policy could be Trump's stance on Russia and Ukraine. Trump may favor a more pro-Russia position, potentially shifting towards concessions that involve Ukraine ceding territory to Russia. This contrasts with Biden's likely more supportive stance on traditional alliances with Western Europe.
Immigration Constraints and Negotiations with Mexico
Both Biden and Trump are constrained in their immigration policies, balancing cooperation with Mexico against internal political challenges. Trump may adopt a more hawkish approach, while Biden's administration could face pressure to restrict immigration, potentially impacting relations with Mexico.
Potential Policy Influences on Migration Issues
There is a potential for policy levers to influence migration issues, specifically concerning cooperation with Mexico. Both administrations would need to negotiate with Mexico on immigration policies, potentially affecting border control measures and migrant flows through Texas and Arizona.
"This presidential election is not very interesting, but it is important," the political commentator Josh Barro wrote in his newsletter, 'Very Serious.' Americans certainly seem to agree with the first part. Engagement with political news has been in the dumps, and many Americans seem to be tuning out the Biden-Trump II rematch. But the conundrum of this election is that it is both numbingly overfamiliar for many voters and also profoundly important for America and the world. The differences between a Biden and a Trump presidency for America’s domestic and foreign policy are huge. Too often, these differences are ignored in horse-race coverage—and, sometimes, they even go underemphasized by the campaigns and their own advocates. If you turn on a news segment or read a long article, you’ll probably hear about the dangers that Trump poses to democracy, or the rule of law, or the administrative state. All worthy concerns. But what is at stake for our most basic bread-and-butter issues: abortion, inflation, economic growth, government spending, entitlements, immigration, and foreign policy? Josh and Derek talk about the roots of voter ambivalence, what Trump's second administration could look like, and the biggest differences between a Biden and Trump White House.
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