HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on what the China trade deal means for mortgage rates
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May 13, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst known for his deep insights into housing market dynamics, joins to discuss the implications of the recent trade deal with China on mortgage rates. He explores three potential outcomes for rates as they relate to economic uncertainty and ongoing tariffs. The conversation delves into how international trade agreements interact with labor market dynamics and Federal Reserve policies. Mohtashami also critiques prevailing economic narratives, shedding light on the future of housing market trends.
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Trade Deal Changes Economic Outlook
- The 90-day delay in China tariffs after the trade deal altered market expectations instantly.
- This shift suggests the worst-case economic recession scenario from tariffs may be avoided.
Tariffs Impact on Treasury Yields
- Without Godzilla tariffs, the 10-year Treasury yield should be around 4.35%, reflecting no perceived economic weakness.
- Economic strength depends heavily on labor market health despite tariff impacts.
De-escalation Could Improve Supply Chains
- Deal-making with China may encourage other countries to also ease trade tensions.
- Supply chain improvements could gradually ease inflationary pressures, influencing Fed policy.