Best of the Spectator Americano: can Trump forge a lasting peace with Iran?
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Jun 15, 2026 
Daniel McCarthy, Distinguished Fellow in Conservative Thought at the Heritage Foundation and US columnist for The Spectator, offers sharp analysis of US-Iran relations. He discusses Trump's calibrated use of force to push Iran toward talks. He examines escalation risks, differences with Israeli aims, and whether a deal could end long US entanglement in the Middle East.
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Trump Left An Off-Ramp For Negotiations
- Trump calibrated force to leave Iran room to negotiate rather than pursue full-scale ground war.
- Daniel McCarthy highlights intense air campaign but no ground invasion as a deliberate off-ramp to talks on nukes.
Negotiations Arose From Costly Alternatives
- Continued limited war or major escalation were the likely alternatives to negotiations, raising risks of US ground deployment.
- McCarthy argues Iran chose talks because prolonged conflict or opening the Strait of Hormuz would be far costlier.
Regime Change Hopes Were Overly Optimistic
- Early hopes for rapid Iranian collapse proved wrong; popular protests did not force regime change.
- McCarthy notes Trump wasn't necessarily committed to regime change and prioritized eliminating nuclear capability over overthrowing the regime.