The Science Behind Hurricane Milton | ‘Unsettling’ Warm Water In Lake Michigan

Oct 11, 2024

In this discussion, climate reporter Juan Pablo Ramirez-Franco explores the alarming warming trends in the Great Lakes, particularly Lake Michigan. He highlights how the lake's surface temperature has been consistently above average, impacting local ecosystems. The talk also covers Hurricane Milton's unusual behavior, including a calmer-than-expected storm surge. Additionally, they touch on the important implications of climate change on hurricane intensity and the broader environmental challenges this poses for cities like Chicago.

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ANECDOTE

Unseasonably Warm Lake Michigan

Lake Michigan swimmers enjoyed unseasonably warm 71-degree water in mid-September.
This warm weather, while enjoyable, felt "deeply abnormal" to some.

ANECDOTE

Hurricane Milton's Surge and Reverse Surge

Hurricane Milton was predicted to cause a 15-foot storm surge, but it only reached 5-10 feet.
A reverse storm surge occurred north of Siesta Key, temporarily exposing the ocean floor in Tampa Bay.

INSIGHT

Climate Change and Hurricane Intensity

Warmer Gulf of Mexico waters fueled Hurricane Helene's intensity and increased heavy rainfall in Appalachia.
Climate change made these increased temperatures hundreds of times more likely.

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Hurricane Milton caused a major storm surge, but also a reverse one. And, Lake Michigan's surface temperature has been above average nearly every day this year so far. All five Great Lakes are heating up.

The Science Behind Hurricane Milton

On October 9, Hurricane Milton made landfall in Siesta Key, Florida, then barrelled across the state. This comes just a couple of weeks after Hurricane Helene devastated parts of the southeastern US. Hurricane Milton dumped up to 18 inches of rain in some places, flooding cars, homes, and other buildings. Several people are confirmed dead. Around 3 million are without power.

Hurricane Milton was expected to cause a 15-foot storm surge, but it appears that the storm surge maxed out at five to six feet. And there wasn’t just a storm surge, but a reverse one.

Ira talks with Maggie Koerth, science writer and editorial lead for Carbon Plan, about some of the science of Hurricane Milton. They also discuss other science stories from the week, including President Biden’s new rule for replacing lead pipes, concerns about the security of genetic data with 23andMe, and how to tell if an elephant is left or right-trunked.

Lake Michigan Swimmers Enjoy ‘Unsettling’ Warm Water

On a sunny, mid-September afternoon, Olu Demuren took a running start off the concrete ledge just south of Belmont Harbor and leapt into Lake Michigan for the first time.

“I was preparing myself for cold water,” Demuren said. “And this immediately felt very nice.”

The water along Chicago’s lakeshore averaged an unseasonable 71 degrees that day. The weather was picturesque too: clear blue skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Annelise Rittberg watched their friends from the concrete ledge and said the weather felt “deeply abnormal.”

“While it’s fun to be out here, it’s also unsettling,” Rittberg said.

Lake Michigan is heating up. The lake’s surface temperature has surpassed the running average dating back to 1995 nearly every day this year, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. And it’s not just one Great Lake. All five are warming. The massive bodies of water, which provide drinking water to more than 30 million people, are among the fastest-warming lakes worldwide, according to the federal government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment.

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