The Rachman Review

Is the Middle East heading for all-out war?

Aug 7, 2024

Emile Hokayem, a Middle East expert from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, joins Andrew England to dissect the region's escalating tensions. They delve into the implications of recent Israeli assassinations of Hamas leaders and the looming threats of Iranian retaliation. The discussion highlights the precarious balance between military strategies and the potential for broader conflict. Hokayem emphasizes the preference of Iran and Hezbollah for smaller engagements to avoid all-out war while navigating complex diplomatic relationships in a volatile landscape.

26:24

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Emile Hokayem

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Quick takeaways

Israel's recent assassinations are both tactical and political moves aimed at restoring deterrence credibility amid escalating tensions with Iran and Hezbollah.

The complex dynamics of the Middle East conflict highlight the urgent need for a viable political solution to prevent a cycle of violence and achieve lasting peace.

Deep dives

Escalation and Regional Tensions

The recent assassination of key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders by Israel has heightened tensions in the Middle East, with Iran and its allies poised for a retaliatory response. This marks a pivotal moment in the region, where the potential for widespread conflict looms, particularly after the violent October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel. Both Israel and Iran appear to be engaged in a dangerous game of escalation, where neither side desires an all-out war but is willing to risk it in order to maintain credibility and deterrence. Observers note that while Israel has strategically positioned itself advantageously, Iran and its allies are increasingly pressured to respond in a manner that preserves their own standing despite significant risks involved.

Intro

1min

Tensions and Retaliations in the Middle East

4min

Exploring Iran and Hezbollah's War Strategy: Avoidance and Calculations

4min

Escalating Tensions: Israel and Iran

13min

Navigating the Challenges of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

4min

Two assassinations carried out by Israel, one in Beirut and one in Tehran, have brought threats of retaliation from Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah. Andrew England, the FT’s Middle East editor, discusses whether the latest escalation can be contained with Emile Hokayem, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Clips: AP; CBS

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Free links to read more on this topic:

Netanyahu is prepared to escalate in the Middle East

How all-out war between Israel and its adversaries might play out

Hamas picks Yahya Sinwar as new political leader

Iran will ‘definitely’ retaliate against Israel for killing of Haniyeh, says new president

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Presented by Andrew England. Produced by Fiona Symon. Sound design is by Sean McGarrity.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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