Making Sense 2026 Corporate Compass: Market resilience, AI and geopolitics
Jan 6, 2026
Evan Junek, the Global Head of Corporate Finance Advisory at J.P. Morgan, shares insights on the latest Corporate Compass report. He delves into the turbulent market of 2025, highlighting volatility and AI's impact on capital spending. The discussion covers U.S.–China dynamics, the growing emphasis on scale in capital formation, and trends towards corporate separations. Evan also addresses policy shifts affecting industries like renewables, showcasing how companies are strategizing for future growth amidst uncertainties.
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AI Drove 2025 Market Resiliency
- AI was the main driver of market resiliency and growth in 2025, powering outsized CapEx and GDP contributions.
- The shift from low capital intensity to heavy tech-driven investment reverses a multi-decade trend in U.S. corporate spending.
CapEx Boom Centers On AI
- S&P 500 CapEx grew ~13% year-over-year over the last five years, concentrated in tech and AI.
- The real test in 2026 is turning AI 'hopes and dreams' into operating realities with completed data centers and rising power demand.
Valuations High, Risk Premiums Low
- Absolute equity valuations sit in the top historical quartile while equity risk premiums are near 20-year lows.
- Debt markets also show historically tight spreads, signaling broadly compressed risk pricing across markets.