Climate tech startups need strong techno-economic analysis (TEA)
Oct 5, 2023
auto_awesome
The podcast discusses the importance of techno-economic analysis (TEA) for evaluating climate tech startups. It highlights common mistakes in TEA models, such as unrealistic inputs and focusing on individual components instead of the entire system. The podcast also emphasizes the significance of accurate comparisons, competitiveness, and considering distribution and transport costs in energy technologies. Overall, techno-economic analysis plays a crucial role in determining the success factors for climate tech startups.
49:39
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
When conducting techno-economic analysis (TEA) for novel climate technologies, it is important to avoid unreasonable assumptions and focus on the system as a whole.
Techno-economic analysis (TEA) plays a crucial role in understanding the economics and feasibility of novel climate technologies, guiding decision-making and resource allocation.
Deep dives
Common Pitfalls in Techno-Economic Analysis
When conducting techno-economic analysis (TEA) for novel climate technologies, it is important to avoid some common pitfalls. One such pitfall is making unreasonable assumptions, such as assuming a 100% capacity factor for renewable energy sources or underestimating the cost of organic molecules. Another pitfall is focusing only on the core component of a system and neglecting other factors that contribute to the overall cost, like balance of system costs in battery or solar installations. Comparing levelized costs to market selling prices is also problematic, as they are not equivalent and do not account for profit margins. Similarly, comparing today's costs to future prices without considering potential technology advancements can lead to misleading conclusions. Additionally, it is crucial to prioritize the right metrics in TEA. Efficiency or performance metrics might not always have a significant impact on overall economics, and it's essential to identify the drivers that truly matter. Lastly, false precision should be avoided in TEA models, as it is better to focus on the major sensitivities and critical path instead of trying to achieve unrealistic levels of precision.
The Value of Techno-Economic Analysis
Techno-economic analysis (TEA) plays a crucial role in understanding the economics and feasibility of novel climate technologies. TEA helps identify the level of technological innovation required and sets targeted goals for competitiveness in the marketplace. It provides insights into cost drivers, sensitivities, and strategic decision-making for startups and investors. TEA also guides companies in optimizing their resources and prioritizing areas of focus. By integrating technical and economic factors, TEA enables a holistic assessment of technology development and commercialization strategies. In summary, TEA is a valuable tool for assessing the viability of climate technologies and guiding the path towards economic success.
The Importance of Realistic Assumptions in Techno-Economic Analysis
Techno-economic analysis (TEA) requires realistic assumptions to provide accurate insights into the economic viability of climate technologies. Unreasonable assumptions, such as assuming 100% capacity factor for renewables or underestimating the cost of organic molecules, can lead to misrepresentation of costs and potential profitability. It is important to align assumptions with real-world conditions and market dynamics. TEA should consider factors like distribution costs, future technology advancements, market price dynamics, and customer value propositions. By incorporating realistic assumptions, TEA can provide valuable guidance for decision-making, resource allocation, and strategic planning in the development and commercialization of climate technologies.
Avoiding False Precision in Techno-Economic Analysis
While techno-economic analysis (TEA) is a valuable tool, it is essential to avoid false precision in modeling and analysis. Over-specifying and focusing on precise decimal points can lead to unnecessary complexity and may not reflect the inherent uncertainties at early stages of technology development. TEA should strike a balance between providing valuable insights and practicality. A focus on critical metrics, cost drivers, and system-level analysis is more important than pursuing excessive precision. By avoiding false precision, TEA can deliver actionable information, guide decision-making, and facilitate the successful development and commercialization of climate technologies.
We have a flash sale for Transition-AI: New York through October 9th. Use the code FLASH30 to get 30% off your ticket price to our event on AI + energy. Spots are limited, so don't miss out!
This might be our wonkiest topic yet: Techno-economic analysis, or TEA.
Before a startup has proven that its technology is commercially viable, it models how its technology would work. These TEAs include things like assumptions about inputs, prices, and market landscape. They help investors and entrepreneurs answer the question, will this technology compete?
TEAs are important to the success of an early-stage climate-tech company. And a lot of startups get them wrong. As an investor at Energy Impact Partners (EIP), Shayle and his team see a lot of TEAs—and have some pet peeves.
What can startups do to improve their TEAs?
In this episode, Shayle talks to his colleagues Dr. Greg Thiel, EIP’s director of technology, and Dr. Melissa Ball, EIP’s associate director of technology. They cover topics like:
Bad assumptions about things like levelized cost of production
Focusing on a component instead of a system
Focusing on unhelpful metrics
Using false precision—something Shayle calls “modeling theater”
Recommended Resources:
Activate: Techonomics: Establishing best practices in early stage technology modeling
Department of Energy: Techno-economic, Energy, & Carbon Heuristic Tool for Early-Stage Technologies (TECHTEST) Tool
Sign up for Latitude Media’s Frontier Forum on January 29, featuring Crux CEO Alfred Johnson, who will break down the budding market for clean energy tax credits. We’ll dissect current transactions and pricing, compare buyer and seller expectations, and look at where the market is headed in 2024.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode