Is the AI Trade Over? (EP. 439)

whatshot 5 snips

Nov 19, 2025

The hosts dive into whether there's genuine euphoria in the AI market, contrasting it with a healthy skepticism. They explore the struggles in speculative trading, including Bitcoin's recent crash, and question narratives about young first-time homebuyers. A discussion on the 'Great Stuff Transfer' highlights the challenges of estate cleaning. They also analyze tech bond risks following AI hype and raise intriguing questions about the role of private credit in the investment landscape. Finally, personal anecdotes add a relatable touch amidst the financial analysis.

01:13:50

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INSIGHT

AI Hype Had A Summer Peak

The AI-driven rally showed clear euphoria during summer announcements, even if it's faded now.
Michael Batnick argues that the recent pullback is a healthy reset, not the end of the trend.

insights

INSIGHT

AI Becoming Politically Unpopular

Public skepticism toward AI is rising and affects political and consumer sentiment.
Brad Gerstner warned AI is becoming deeply unpopular and politicians fear mentioning it.

insights

INSIGHT

Long Bear Markets Are Uncommon Now

Long, recessionary bear markets are rare and very painful when they occur.
Ben and Michael argue fast recoveries may now be the new normal due to faster information and tech.

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Is There Euphoria Around AI?

02:26 • 3min

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How Is the Speculative 'Degen' Market Performing?

05:15 • 1min

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Why Skepticism Keeps a Lid on the Bubble

06:27 • 5min

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Are Tech Bonds and Oracle Vulnerable After AI Bets?

11:52 • 3min

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Why U.S. Startups Are Pulling Ahead

14:36 • 1min

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Do We Need a Long Bear Market to Reset Complacency?

15:56 • 6min

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Legendary Trades vs. Legendary Investors

21:27 • 3min

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The 'Great Stuff Transfer' and Hoarding Consequences

24:46 • 2min

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Are Young People Really 'Screwed' on Housing?

26:36 • 2min

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Is Private Credit Eating Into Equity Allocations?

28:34 • 4min

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What Does Consumer Collections Data Show?

32:34 • 2min

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How Do Everyday Prices Differ From CPI?

34:42 • 2min

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Personal Anecdotes: Car Accident and Lease Decisions

36:57 • 2min

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Will Hyperscalers and OpenAI Drive the Economy?

38:44 • 5min

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How Often Do Big Earnings-Related Drops Happen?

44:08 • 52sec

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What Happens When Compounders Stop Compounding?

45:00 • 3min

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Would Institutional Sports Betting Harm Retail Operators?

47:45 • 1min

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Is Bitcoin's Drop a Signal of Broader Market Pain?

49:06 • 2min

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Are 50-Year Mortgages a Good Idea?

51:18 • 2min

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Why Are First-Time Buyers Getting Older?

53:27 • 2min

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Schwab, Forge, and the Push into Private Markets

55:49 • 3min

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What's Going Wrong at Blue Owl and BDCs?

58:48 • 2min

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How Are Marriage Rates and Life Choices Shifting?

01:00:56 • 2min

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Are Retirement Contribution Limits Increasing in 2026?

01:02:31 • 31sec

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Ben's Renovation Nightmare and Bad Service Experience

01:03:02 • 4min

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What TV and Book Recommendations Do the Hosts Have?

• Mentioned in 14 episodes

Destiny of the republic

A Tale of Madness, Medicine and the Murder of a President

Candice Millard

This book by Candice Millard delves into the life and assassination of James A. Garfield, the 20th President of the United States. It highlights the dramatic events surrounding his death, including the archaic medical treatments that ultimately led to his demise. The narrative also explores the broader context of the time, including the national mood post-Civil War, the political struggles within Garfield's administration, and the roles of key figures such as Alexander Graham Bell and Vice President Chester Arthur. The book is praised for its engaging storytelling and meticulous research.

#3025

• Mentioned in 12 episodes

A night to remember

Walter Lord

A Night to Remember is a classic non-fiction book by Walter Lord that recounts the tragic story of the Titanic's sinking in 1912. The book is based on interviews with 63 survivors and provides a detailed, moment-by-moment account of the disaster. It explores the experiences of passengers and crew from different social classes, highlighting the human side of the tragedy.

This episode is sponsored by Nuveen & YCharts

Invest like the future is watching. Visit https://www.nuveen.com/future to learn more.

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