Rich Hill, Global Head of Real Estate Strategy at Principal Asset Management, shares his expertise overseeing $100B in real estate. He addresses why the office sector isn’t as doomed as many think, featuring shifting investor sentiments and rising originations. Rich also dives into the data center boom, outlining the risks and rewards driven by AI. He clarifies misconceptions around housing shortages and discusses evolving return expectations amid a transformed market landscape, bringing necessary clarity to an often chaotic industry.
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question_answer ANECDOTE
Rich's NYC COVID Visit
Rich Hill and his wife visited New York City during COVID to check the city's pulse.
Despite media claims of a dead city, downtown was lively and bustling with activity.
insights INSIGHT
Four Quadrants Yield Opportunities
A four quadrant approach in real estate (public/private, equity/debt) always finds opportunities.
Debt, especially private credit and CMBS, is attractive now due to lagging performance and yield disparities.
insights INSIGHT
CMBS Lagged Then Rebounded
CMBS lagged corporate credit due to early market fears of defaults in commercial real estate.
Once fear subsided, CMBS saw a massive catch-up rally in yields and prices.
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Season 3, Episode 4: Rich Hill, Global Head of Real Estate Strategy at Principal Asset Management, joins the show for a candid deep dive into the state of CRE in 2025, from CMBS and construction lending to the hype around AI data centers.
With over $100B in real estate under management, Rich explains why office isn’t dead, where multifamily pricing is off, and how investors are recalibrating their return expectations.
We discuss:
– Why debt is suddenly back in favor
– What’s fueling (and threatening) the data center boom
– Where office sentiment is quietly shifting
– The truth behind the “housing shortage” narrative
Rich brings clarity to the chaos, offering a rare look at how one of the industry’s largest real estate platforms is navigating 2025.
TOPICS
00:00 – Intro & Birthday Surprise
03:00 – Rich’s Career Path + Joining Principal
06:00 – How Principal Allocates Capital in Today’s Market
10:30 – Debt, Construction Lending, and CMBS Strategy
15:40 – Data Centers, AI Demand, and Market Caution
22:30 – Office Outlook and Why Originations Are Ticking Up
28:00 – Living Strategies, Seniors Housing, and Multifamily Mispricing
33:50 – US vs. Europe: Capital Sentiment and Cross-Border Strategy
39:20 – Tariffs, Onshoring, and Resilient Cash Flows
43:00 – Return Expectations for CRE in 2025 and Beyond
47:00 – Final Thoughts on Alternatives and Outlook
Shoutout to our sponsor, InvestNext. One platform to raise and manage capital for real estate investment.
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About No Cap Podcast
Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America’s economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry’s biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate.
About CRE Daily
CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.
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