PassivePockets: The Passive Real Estate Investing Show

Scott Trench’s 2026 Playbook: Rates, Rents, and the Office Bet

5 snips

Jan 6, 2026

Scott Trench, a seasoned real estate investor and former CEO of BiggerPockets, shares his insights on the 2025 market and unveils a strategic playbook for 2026. He discusses the challenges and surprises of the past year, like sticky interest rates and resilient stock markets. Scott plans to de-risk by transitioning from high-multiple stocks to paid-off multifamily rentals in Denver. He also explores the dynamics of supply, rents, and an intriguing contrarian investment thesis for office spaces, emphasizing quality operators and long-term strategies.

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INSIGHT

Sticky Rates And Supply-Driven Rents

Interest rates stayed sticky in 2025 and borrowing conditions didn't materially improve for most people.
Rent outcomes were driven by supply: heavy new deliveries lowered rents, low construction supports rent growth.

ANECDOTE

Sold Stocks To Buy Paid-Off Denver Rentals

Scott sold a large chunk of stocks in early 2025 and redeployed proceeds into Denver rentals he bought outright.
He also used his solo 401(k) to place a small amount into a private credit fund as diversification.

ADVICE

Match Aggression To Life Stage

Shift risk posture across life stages: be aggressive early, then protect capital mid-career, and consider reloading later.
Prioritize family and life stability when choosing investment risk as you age.

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This Episode

Chris Lopez and Jim Pfeifer sit down with Scott Trench for a frank 2025 recap and a practical 2026 game plan. Scott reviews what he got right (rates staying sticky, supply-driven rent trends) and where the surprises showed up (gold strength, stock market resilience), then opens his playbook: selling a chunk of stocks, buying paid-off 2–4 unit Denver rentals, and allocating a small slice of retirement capital to private credit via a solo 401(k). Looking ahead, Scott focuses on multifamily supply tapering, demand uncertainty, and the 10-year vs. Fed funds dynamic. He also lays out a contrarian Class A office thesis (all equity, patient lease-up, operator quality over leverage) and shares how LPs might think about accessing similar opportunities.

Key Takeaways

Interest rates: policy cuts may not translate to lower mortgages if the 10-year stays elevated
Supply and rents: 2026 likely absorbs the 2024–2025 wave, with rent strength returning market by market
Portfolio moves: swapped high-multiple equities for paid-off small multifamily; reserved retirement dollars for simple-yield private credit
Risk posture: early-career aggression → mid-career capital protection; leverage optionality comes later
Office angle: best-in-market, newer assets with patient, all-equity business plans may offer asymmetric upside
LP lens: prioritize operator track records in one geography, modest leverage, and realistic lease-up/tenant improvement budgets

Disclaimer

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