Value Hive Podcast Dan McMurtrie: Research Process, Inverted Shorts & Post-Consciousness
Scale Into Confirmed Theses
- Do increase position size when incremental information removes downside risk and confirms the thesis.
- Buy more after confirmation even if price is higher because risk-reward often improves.
Research Should Map Outcome Triggers
- Research should define when you'll go long or short and what incremental data changes the outcome distribution.
- Focus on information that meaningfully changes downside instead of predicting distant outcomes.
Shorts Can Flip To High-Reward Longs
- Popular short theses can become excellent long opportunities once the single depressing outcome is removed.
- Buying former shorts often yields strong asymmetric returns because many other outcomes push the stock higher.
This week we chat with Dan McMurtrie, co-founder and Portfolio Manager of Tyro Partners. Tyro manages assets for Institutions and High Net Worth Individuals. We utilize a deep dive research process focused on evaluating the secular trends and supply chains driving Technology, Healthcare, Industrial, and Consumer markets.
Today Dan joins The Hive for a three-hour podcast with topics ranging from post-consciousness, Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, Fad Investing, and Lessons For Emerging Managers.
Dan is a fantastic investor and an even better human. I hope you listen to the show in its entirety as Dan continually drops knowledge bombs about life as an emerging manager.
If you don't already, please follow Dan on Twitter @SuperMugatu. Also, if you're interested in Dan's firm Tyro Partners, check them out here.
This episode is brought to you by TIKR. Join the free beta today at TIKR.com/hive. They're constantly releasing new updates that make the platform better including a new Business Owner Mode that hides share count, market cap, and enterprise value. Also, they've introduced their new Global Stock Screener. Check it out now! I couldn't be more excited to partner with TIKR
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