Ep 161: Mackenzie Eaglen on China’s Military Spending and Ours
Dec 3, 2024
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Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an expert in defense strategy and budgets, delves into the stark realities of U.S. military funding. She highlights the alarming gap between China's reported and actual defense spending, stressing its implications for U.S. military readiness. Eaglen also discusses the critical need for strategic responses to China's advancements and the long-term impacts of budget constraints on national security and education. Her insights reveal the urgent necessity for the U.S. to modernize its defense approach.
China's military budget, often underestimated, may be closer to $700 billion when accounting for unreported expenses, challenging the U.S. estimate.
The U.S. defense budget's large allocation does not guarantee superior military readiness, particularly due to global resource dispersion over key areas.
Significant past defense cuts have created lasting issues in U.S. military readiness, complicating responses to future geopolitical threats alongside rising tensions.
Deep dives
China's Military Budget Misunderstanding
The true size of China's military budget is often underestimated, leading to misleading comparisons with the U.S. defense budget. While official reports state that China spends approximately $229 billion, experts argue that when accounting for unreported expenses, the figure is closer to $700 billion, nearly equivalent to U.S. military spending. This misunderstanding stems from a lack of clarity on what constitutes military expenditure, including costs associated with the Coast Guard, research and development, and other military-related investments that the Chinese government does not publicly disclose. Proper evaluation requires looking at the actual outputs and capabilities of China's military investments, which are increasingly outpacing U.S. capabilities in key areas, not only in size but in readiness and strategic impact across critical regions.
The Consequences of U.S. Military Spending
U.S. military spending, while high, does not always translate into superior military readiness or strength compared to China. The strategies of funding a dispersed military presence globally create challenges in maintaining effective readiness, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, where China focuses its resources. This spreading of resources leads to insufficient investments in highly concentrated areas and hinders the ability to respond to potential regional threats. Experts argue that the U.S. budget, despite being larger, may offer less effective military capability due to its allocation across many interests rather than concentrating forces and resources where they are most needed.
The Impact of Historical Budget Cuts
Significant cuts in defense spending due to policies like the Budget Control Act have lingering negative effects on U.S. military capabilities. These budget cuts, initiated amid ongoing military engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan, created a lasting deficit in military readiness and modernization programs. The resulting 'doom loop' of underfunding has left the military with outdated equipment while simultaneously not preparing adequately for future needs. With escalating global tensions, these historical missteps compound the challenges facing U.S. forces, particularly in balancing current operational demands against future threat preparations.
China's Strategic Advantages
China's military strategy benefits from a larger industrial base and government policies that support rapid military advancements, creating competitive advantages over the U.S. One critical aspect of this strategy is China's military-civil fusion, which integrates civilian and military resources, leading to effective military capabilities enhancing efficiency. The trends in espionage also support China's military growth, allowing them to replicate and improve upon U.S. technologies through stolen intellectual property. As a result, the Chinese military not only evolves quickly but is also strategically positioned to exploit weak points in U.S. defense strategies.
The Path Forward for U.S. Defense Policy
There is a growing consensus that U.S. defense policy needs significant reform to address vulnerabilities highlighted by recent discussions. Key elements include reassessing budget priorities, enhancing partnerships globally, and revamping military procurement processes to ensure timely delivery of modern weapon systems. Moreover, it is essential to invest in skilled labor through education reforms to build a workforce capable of supporting defense industry needs. Without these changes, the U.S. risks losing its competitive edge and failing to effectively respond to emerging threats from nations like China.