Dive into the complexities of risk, especially in outdoor adventures, where balancing potential dangers and rewards is key. Discover the value of embracing mistakes as learning opportunities rather than focusing on perfection. Unpack the differences between risk and uncertainty, using clever analogies to illustrate decision-making. Explore the concept of risk savvy versus risk averse, emphasizing intuition in assessments. Lastly, learn about innovative techniques to help enhance intuitive decision-making while fostering a culture of accountability.
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question_answer ANECDOTE
Risk Ramble Origin
The host's interest in risk was sparked by feedback on inconsistent use of terms in their book.
This led them to explore risk literature and frameworks.
insights INSIGHT
Risk Framework
Risk involves hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, especially in outdoor activities.
Vulnerability considers the severity and likelihood of harm.
insights INSIGHT
Probability vs. Consequence
Use a probability vs. consequence matrix to assess risk.
High-probability, low-consequence situations are valuable learning opportunities.
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In this book, Daniel Kahneman takes readers on a tour of the mind, explaining how the two systems of thought shape our judgments and decisions. System 1 is fast, automatic, and emotional, while System 2 is slower, effortful, and logical. Kahneman discusses the impact of cognitive biases, the difficulties of predicting future happiness, and the effects of overconfidence on corporate strategies. He offers practical insights into how to guard against mental glitches and how to benefit from slow thinking in both personal and business life. The book also explores the distinction between the 'experiencing self' and the 'remembering self' and their roles in our perception of happiness.
The Black Swan
The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
David Chandler
Nassim Taleb
The Black Swan is a landmark book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that investigates the phenomenon of highly improbable events with massive impacts. These events, termed Black Swans, are unpredictable, have a significant impact, and are rationalized after the fact to appear less random. Taleb argues that humans are hardwired to focus on specifics rather than generalities, leading to a failure to consider what we don’t know. The book delves into cognitive biases, the limitations of mathematical models, and the importance of robustness and antifragility in navigating a world filled with uncertainty. The second edition includes a new essay, 'On Robustness and Fragility,' offering tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Five Principles of Human Performance
Five Principles of Human Performance
Todd Conklin
Risk savvy
Gerd Gigerenzer
The presentation covers various risk concepts and insights drawn from recent readings and discussions. Key topics include risk frameworks, opportunity, mistakes, uncertainty, tolerance and perception, and aversion vs. savvy. Influential authors include Todd Conklin, Michele Wucker, Nassim Taleb, Adam Grant, Daniel Kahneman, and Gerd Gigerenzer.
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