RJ Bell's Dream Preview Dream Podcast - Super Bowl LIX Preview + Best Bets !!
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk Super Bowl 59. The guys discuss a ton of the big game. Don't miss out on all the best information.
🏆 On Sharp Betting Strategies
🗣 RJ Bell (17:28 - 17:46):
"You know, I would make the case. So you're saying Henry would give you his power, effectively his game ratings for the game and say, go bet somewhere else on your, with your book, with your, with your, I'm using book as like, like the finance guys on Wall Street with your money or with Pinnacle's money, with Pinnacle's money."
🔎 Analysis:
RJ compares betting syndicates to financial markets, illustrating how professionals leverage their knowledge across different books for maximum value. This highlights the arbitrage-style approach sharp bettors take when finding the best odds.
📉 On Market Movements & Hidden Deals
🗣 RJ Bell (18:33 - 19:25):
"The way that the Olympic sports book and the Greek quote unquote, and Billy had a partnership that was, you know, from my understanding, went very deep and, and, and went for many years."
🔎 Analysis:
This quote implies the deep, behind-the-scenes relationships between major sportsbooks and professional bettors. If true, it raises questions about line manipulation and insider strategies used at the highest levels of sports betting.
💰 On Super Bowl Prop Betting & Correlation
🗣 Steve Fezzik (1:31:10 - 1:31:23):
"It makes me very happy because I win Scott's Circus Square zero zero first quarter bet. And also I get to Barry Horowitz pat myself on the back when my bet on both teams are no will score despite the first quarter going over."
🔎 Analysis:
Fezzik celebrates a correlated betting strategy, where even if the first quarter total goes over, his other bet (both teams not scoring) still wins. This demonstrates how sharp bettors hedge their bets across multiple angles.
⏳ On First-Quarter Super Bowl Betting Trends
🗣 Scott Seidenberg (1:31:23 - 1:31:54):
"Of the last ten Super Bowls, five of them were zero-zero. So five scoops, four splits. Only one time, only one time you lost them both."
🔎 Analysis:
Super Bowls have historically started slow, making first-quarter unders and "No score in first six minutes" props sharp plays. Seidenberg reinforces that betting against first-quarter fireworks is often a +EV strategy.
🔥 On Betting Against Mahomes’ Passing Yards
🗣 RJ Bell (1:52:16 - 1:53:25):
"Mahomes in general, his stats aren't as good as his rep or his winning. And I think Fangio is especially suited to slow him down. And I also think that the Super Bowl lends itself to the public betting over."
🔎 Analysis:
RJ makes a compelling case for betting Mahomes' passing yards under, citing defensive coaching (Vic Fangio), public bias towards overs, and Mahomes' shift in playstyle. This aligns with a sharp bettor’s approach to finding value in overinflated markets.
🏈 On Patrick Mahomes' Rushing Habits in Playoffs
🗣 Scott Seidenberg (1:08:13 - 1:08:25):
"This season, when trailing, Patrick Mahomes has only run the ball 12 times in 15 games. When leading, he ran 36 times."
🔎 Analysis:
Seidenberg uncovers a key betting trend—Mahomes runs more when leading than when trailing, contradicting conventional thinking. This insight could shape rushing attempt props for Mahomes in the Super Bowl.
📊 On Jalen Hurts’ Running vs. Passing Playstyle
🗣 RJ Bell (1:17:57 - 1:18:05):
"Almost one in three (29%) of Jalen Hurts' plays were runs. For Mahomes, it was 6%. Hurts was number one in the NFL, Mahomes was number 26."
🔎 Analysis:
RJ emphasizes how much more Hurts runs compared to Mahomes, suggesting Hurts' rushing attempts over might be a strong play. Mahomes’ reliance on passing means sack props or passing yardage unders could hold value.
🔍 On Betting the Super Bowl Over/Under
🗣 Steve Fezzik (1:35:06 - 1:35:28):
"Two years ago, these teams played a shootout. The total opened at 49.5, now it's 48.5 at sharp books. But I think the public's going to bet over."
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