Forecasting Series Part 1: How to forecast and what makes a good forecast

This episode is the first of a special 3 part series that looks at all things forecasting. Cody provides an overview of financial forecasting and the importance of grounding decisions in solid, realistic numbers. He highlights the problem with black magic forecasting, where numbers are made up without proper analysis. Cody explains that a proper forecast provides a plan and sets expectations for what is realistic based on the numbers, emphasizing the need for execution to make the forecast a reality. Cody also discusses the role of business goals, customer cohorts, data analysis, and understanding unit economics in the forecasting process. 

00:59 The Problem with Black Magic Forecasting

01:27 The Importance of Grounding Decisions in Numbers

03:08 The Purpose of a Proper Forecast

04:06 Executing the Forecast

05:05 Pivots and Adjustments in the Forecast

06:04 Setting Business Goals

07:01 Customer Cohorts and Forecasting

07:28 Pulling Data for the Forecast

08:27 Engineering Forecasts Based on Historical Data

09:24 Understanding Unit Economics and Targets

10:46 Improving New Customer Cohort

11:13 Organizing Campaigns by Financial Outcomes

14:36 Execution and Accuracy of the Forecast

15:34 Next Steps and Role Playing

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