The discussion centers on the projected decline in Brent crude oil prices, with predictions set at $80 in 2024, dropping further to $61 by 2026. Analysts showcase stark contrasts in their supply forecasts, particularly regarding production in Brazil and the US. The influence of geopolitical dynamics, including the impact of sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil, is also explored. Despite the uncertainty, OPEC's role in stabilizing prices amid tightening market conditions is highlighted, revealing complex layers in global commodities.
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insights INSIGHT
Bearish Oil Outlook
Brent crude oil is expected to average $80/barrel in 2024, $73 in 2025, and $61 in 2026.
This bearish outlook deviates from Wall Street consensus, especially regarding 2025 projections.
insights INSIGHT
Divergent Oil Price Opinions
While macroeconomic forecasts show strong consensus, oil price predictions for 2025 diverge significantly.
Equity energy investors appear more optimistic than commodity investors.
insights INSIGHT
Oil Market Surplus
The global oil market is expected to shift from balanced in 2024 to a surplus in 2025 and 2026.
Excess supply, driven by non-OPEC production, is the main concern, not demand.
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Having marketed our 2025/2026 Oil Outlook over the last couple weeks, we address the feedback and questions we received from our clients. To recap, Brent crude oil is on track to average $80 per barrel in 2024, which is $3 below our projections from last June. We expect the price to decline to $73 in 2025, remaining largely consistent with our 2024 Outlook published last November, before slipping to $61 in 2026. Surprisingly, our demand outlook did not face significant pushback; however, there was considerable disagreement regarding our supply forecasts, especially concerning production levels in Brazil and the US. Additionally, our perspectives on Iran positioned us as outliers compared to the broader market consensus. Notably, there were no strong opinions expressed regarding the outlook for 2026.
Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
At Any Rate