Independence by Design™ #434: Q1 Economic & M&A Update with ITR Economics, ButcherJosheph, & Joe Brown
The economy is shifting fast, and if you’re a middle-market business owner, the moves you make today will define your future—whether that’s navigating capital markets, securing financing, or making critical reinvestment decisions.
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In this Quarterly Economic & M&A Update, I bring together three powerhouse guests to give you real-time insights you won’t find in mainstream media.
Alan Beaulieu from ITR Economics shares the latest economic data and leading indicators to help you anticipate what’s coming next.
Jeff Buettner from ButcherJoseph breaks down the current state of M&A—who’s buying, what’s happening with valuations, and how financing trends are shifting.
Joe Brown from Heresy Financial takes us deeper into the macroeconomic landscape—government debt, money supply growth, and how it all ties back to your business decisions.
If you’re a business owner looking to understand how these economic forces impact your company’s valuation, financing options, and long-term strategy, this episode is packed with timely and practical insights.
Alan Beaulieu is a Consulting Principal at ITR Economics, has 30 years of experience delivering economic analysis seminars and workshops to business executives worldwide. Known for his straightforward and accurate economic forecasting, Alan has co-authored influential books including "Prosperity in the Age of Decline" and "Make Your Move," which provides practical guidance on increasing profits through business cycle changes. His insights and forecasting expertise have earned him recognition in major publications including the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, and Business Week.
Jeff Buettner is a Managing Director at ButcherJoseph with over 20 years of valuation and financial opinion services experience. He specializes in ESOP transactions, business valuations, fairness opinions, and financial restructuring across diverse industries. Previously, Jeff spent nearly a decade at Stout Risius Ross as Managing Director in ESOP Advisory Services and began his career at PricewaterhouseCoopers. A former board member of the National Center of Employee Ownership, Jeff serves on The ESOP Association's Valuation Advisory Committee and regularly presents at industry conferences. He holds a BBA in Finance from the University of Kentucky and an MBA from the University of Pittsburgh.
Joe Brown is the CEO and Founder of Heresy Financial, a company he established in July 2019 after nearly five years at Charles Schwab as an Investment Consultant. With a mission to help people control and protect their wealth, Joe created Heresy Financial to combat excessive fees and poor investment advice. He holds a BS in Christian Studies from Arizona Christian University, where he participated in the Servant-Leader Scholar Program. Joe shares financial insights through the company's YouTube channel.
Chapters:
- (00:00) Introduction - Q1 2025 economic and M&A update with three expert segments
- (02:46) Alan Beaulieu on economic outlook and ITR's business cycle phases
- (08:00) Analysis of M2 money supply growth and its correlation to economic performance
- (14:00) Commercial real estate refinancing challenges, government debt implications, baby boomers retiring, demographic shifts on the economy, productivity, AI, and technological innovation as economic factors
- (33:00) Talent acquisition and people strategies during labor shortages
- (40:30) Navigating tariffs and potential carve-outs in international trade
- (45:09) Jeff Buettner on current M&A activity and financing market improvements
- (53:53) Analysis of premium businesses and what buyers are looking for in acquisitions, manufacturing shifts, tariffs and international trade
- (01:13:10) Impact of AI on business valuations and acquisition strategies
- (01:25:00) Joe Brown discussing money supply and treasury markets
- (01:35:42) Federal funds rates, understanding the four ways out of government debt situations
- (01:48:17) The role of banks in debt refinancing and monetary policy, potential solutions and indicators to watch in coming quarters
- Rate, comment and share with the owner/operators you know!
Ryan Tansom is a seasoned entrepreneur, speaker, and the founder of Independence by Design™, a transformative ownership framework for growth-oriented business owners. After turning around and selling his family business in an eight-figure exit, Ryan spent over a decade dissecting the lessons learned from his journey. His mission is to help other business owners avoid the pitfalls he encountered by providing them with the tools and knowledge to align their business operations with their personal and financial goals.
With a deep understanding of the challenges faced by owner-operators, Ryan developed Independence by Design™ to empower owner-operators to create sustainable cash flow, grow their company’s equity value, and achieve true independence. He has shared his insights on hundreds of stages, including Vistage, EO, and industry associations, and has reached over 500,000 listeners through his podcast.
Ryan is passionate about helping business owners get unstuck from the day-to-day grind and design a business that serves their life, not the other way around.
Resources:
ITR Economics: itreconomics.com
Jeff Beuttner LinkedIn
ButcherJoseph & Co.: butcherjoseph.com
Heresy Financial https://www.heresy.financial/
Heresy Financial (Joe Brown’s YouTube Channel): youtube.com/heresyfinancial
Independence by Design™ Workshop: https://ryantansom.com/independence-by-design-workshop
Independence by Design™ Ownership Coaching: Ryan Tansom’s Ownership Accelerator programs and coaching https://ryantansom.com/coaching
Ryan Tansom Website https://ryantansom.com/
Ryan Tansom LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryantansom/
Ryan Tansom Twitter https://twitter.com/RyanTansom
Ryan Tansom YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@ryantansom
Ryan Tansom 30-Minute Ownership Strategy Call https://calendar.app.google/tsKk7z6ohugDchWq8
Sound Bites
“We might be feeling the pain now, but understanding where things are headed helps us make better decisions for the rest of the year.” – Ryan Tansom
“The lending markets are changing—strong businesses still have access to capital, but deal structures are evolving fast.” – Jeff Buettner
“M2 money supply growth is ramping up again. If you want to understand where the economy is headed, follow the money.” – Joe Brown
“Business cycles aren’t new. The key is using data to see what’s coming, instead of reacting to headlines.” – Alan from ITR Economics