BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner

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Oct 14, 2025

Dive into the booming $3 trillion AI landscape as experts analyze circular revenue concerns and potential bubbles. Explore the rise of stablecoins, reshaping finance with instant payment rails like PIX and FedNow. Listen in on the debate over AI regulation and the risks of state laws creating a chaotic patchwork. Discover insights from Bill's upcoming book, discussing career fulfillment and overcoming regret. Tune in for a mix of tech trends and personal growth!

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Episode notes

00:00 / 00:00

Scrutinize Revenue Quality Continuously

Watch transactions on a continuum from sham to legitimate and question whether revenue would exist absent the investment.
Ask whether purchases were made only because capital was provided, as that weakens revenue quality.

00:00 / 00:00

Cloud Credits Can Mask Real Demand

Circular financing and in-kind cloud credits can create misleading revenue and hide true demand risk.
These practices raise systemic leverage and muddy signals that would reveal slowing demand.

00:00 / 00:00

Competition Creates CapEx Race Risk

The AI CapEx wave is unprecedented in scale and driven by competitive race dynamics.
That competition raises the odds of overprovisioning even if multiples don't look frothy today.

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Why the Pod Started and Bill's Departure

02:22 • 5min

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Is AI CapEx Becoming a Bubble?

06:59 • 2min

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How to Distinguish Sham vs. Genuine Transactions

09:00 • 1min

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Microsoft Credits and Cloud Economics Concerns

10:19 • 3min

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When Vendor Investment Becomes Hidden Leverage

12:50 • 3min

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CoreWeave, NVIDIA Guarantees, and Demand Opacity

15:20 • 4min

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Are We Overbuilding $3T of AI Infrastructure?

18:55 • 2min

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Valuations, MAG CapEx Surge, and Competitive Race Dynamics

21:14 • 4min

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OpenAI's Escape Velocity Strategy and Competitive Pressure

25:00 • 3min

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Why Federal Preemption Matters for AI Rules

28:24 • 2min

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Colorado and California's New AI Laws and Risks

30:13 • 5min

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Stablecoins, PIX, and New Financial Rails

34:50 • 2min

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Why Bill Is Now Bullish on Crypto Payments

36:27 • 2min

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Coinbase–Circle Yield and the Payments UX Shift

38:33 • 3min

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Incumbents, Regulatory Capture, and the Risk of Strangling Innovation

41:35 • 2min

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Who Wins the Network Effects Battle for Money?

43:50 • 1min

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Personal Next Steps: Bill's Focus Beyond Tech Investing

45:10 • 5min

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Running Down a Dream — Book Purpose and Structure

50:25 • 3min

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Why Career Regret Motivates This Book

53:02 • 4min

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Book Launch Plans and Audience Takeaways

56:58 • 4min

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Bill's Broader Agenda: Regulatory Capture, Nuclear, Healthcare

• Mentioned in 23 episodes

The Power of Regret

How Looking Backward Moves Us Forward

Daniel Pink

In The Power of Regret, Daniel H. Pink delves into the psychology of regret, drawing on extensive research in social psychology, neuroscience, economics, and biology. He debunks the myth of the 'no regrets' philosophy and argues that regret is a fundamental and valuable emotion. Pink identifies four core categories of regret: foundation regrets, boldness regrets, moral regrets, and connection regrets. These categories serve as a 'photographic negative' of the good life, revealing what people value most. The book provides a three-step process for transforming regrets into positive forces for personal growth and better decision-making. Pink's work is based on his World Regret Survey, which collected regrets from over 16,000 people in 105 countries, offering practical guidance on how to thrive beyond mistakes and turn regrets into learning opportunities.

#17

• Mentioned in 297 episodes

The Anxious Generation

Jonathan Haidt

In 'The Anxious Generation', Jonathan Haidt examines the sudden decline in the mental health of adolescents starting in the early 2010s. He attributes this decline to the shift from a 'play-based childhood' to a 'phone-based childhood', highlighting mechanisms such as sleep deprivation, attention fragmentation, addiction, loneliness, social contagion, and perfectionism that interfere with children’s social and neurological development. Haidt proposes four simple rules to address this issue: no smartphones before high school, no social media before age 16, phone-free schools, and more opportunities for independence, free play, and responsibility. The book offers a clear call to action for parents, teachers, schools, tech companies, and governments to restore a more humane childhood and end the epidemic of mental illness among youth.

#6918

• Mentioned in 5 episodes

Runnin' Down a Dream

How to Succeed and Thrive in a Career You Love

Bill Gurley

Bill Gurley's speech 'Runnin' Down a Dream' emphasizes the importance of pursuing deep personal interests and constantly improving one's skills to achieve success. It highlights the value of mentorship and collaboration in career advancement.

• Mentioned in 980 episodes

Atomic Habits

James Clear

Atomic Habits by James Clear provides a practical and scientifically-backed guide to forming good habits and breaking bad ones. The book introduces the Four Laws of Behavior Change: make it obvious, make it attractive, make it easy, and make it satisfying. It also emphasizes the importance of small, incremental changes (atomic habits) that compound over time to produce significant results. Clear discusses techniques such as habit stacking, optimizing the environment to support desired habits, and focusing on continuous improvement rather than goal fixation. The book is filled with actionable strategies, real-life examples, and stories from various fields, making it a valuable resource for anyone seeking to improve their habits and achieve personal growth.

Pre-Order Runnin' Down a Dream now: https://a.co/d/0oIPPve

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they unpack the $3T AI buildout, circular revenue red flags, and whether the boom is becoming a bubble. They dive into the rise of stablecoins and the new financial rails reshaping money, the fight over AI regulation in America, and Bill’s next chapter—his new book Runnin' Down a Dream and what it means to build a career you actually love. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:00) Two Years of BG2

(03:45) Bill Stepping Back to Write His Book

(06:00) Runnin' Down a Dream

(07:00) The AI CapEx Bubble?

(09:30) Sham vs. Real Transactions in AI

(11:00) Microsoft–OpenAI Credits & Cloud Economics

(13:00) Nvidia’s Investments: Healthy or Hype?

(17:00) CoreWeave, Hidden Leverage & Demand Risks

(19:15) $3 Trillion CapEx: Are We Overbuilding AI?

(21:45) The MAG5 CapEx Surge: Too Much, Too Fast?

(24:30) Meta’s CapEx Comeback & AI ROI

(25:30) OpenAI’s Race for Escape Velocity

(28:30) AI Regulation: State Patchwork Madness

(30:30) Why Federal Preemption Is Critical

(33:15) The Colorado & California AI Acts

(35:00) Stablecoin Surge: $18T in Settlements

(36:45) Gurley’s Crypto Conversion

(38:30) From PIX to FedNow: The Future of Digital Money

(41:00) Coinbase, Circle, and the 4% Yield Revolution

(43:00) Why Visa & Banks Fear Stablecoins

(45:00) Gurley: “I’m Jumping on the Crypto Train”

(46:00) Brad on Invest America (Trump Accounts)

(49:00) Implementation Timeline & Treasury Update

(50:30) Bill’s Book: Runnin' Down a Dream

(53:15) The Great Career Reset: Passion vs. Grind

(55:00) Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework

(57:00) Who the Book Is For

(59:00) Gurley’s Next Mission

Show Notes:

All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9cO3-MLHOM

Plain English: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-could-burst/id1594471023?i=1000728026459

Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ

Produced by Dan Shevchuk

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

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