Norman Roule, a former CIA officer with 34 years of experience focused on the Middle East, discusses the survival of the Assad regime and the roles of Iran and Russia. He explores bureaucratic issues in these countries that have allowed groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to gain ground quickly. Roule also critiques the military strategies of the Syrian regime, highlights the current geopolitical struggles, and suggests actions the U.S. can undertake to promote peace and stability in the region.
Iran's Quds Force and Russia's military collaboration were pivotal in maintaining Assad's regime, despite significant external and internal pressures.
The emergence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham highlights the need for a strategic U.S. response to prevent a resurgence of extremism in Syria.
Deep dives
The Role of Iran and Russia in Assad's Survival
Iran's Quds Force played a crucial role in helping Bashar al-Assad maintain power during the Arab Spring, despite facing significant challenges and losses. The Quds Force lacked essential military resources like air power and artillery, prompting Qasem Soleimani to secure increased Russian support. This collaboration involved Iranian ground forces and Russian aerial support, which ultimately helped Assad fend off opposition forces. However, as the situation evolved, additional pressures, including increased Israeli actions against Iranian leaders, diminished the effectiveness of Iran's strategy in Syria.
Failures of Syrian Alliances and Intelligence
The collapse of the Assad regime was marked by significant intelligence failures among his allies, particularly Iran and Russia, which contributed to their inability to respond effectively to opposition advances. Despite having the necessary military resources, they were unprepared for unexpected challenges posed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), showing a lack of strategic planning. The breakdown of coordination revealed bureaucratic issues within the leadership of both countries, compromising their military effectiveness in the region. As a result, the Assad regime faced dire consequences for their failure to adapt to emerging threats.
The Emerging Landscape and U.S. Concerns
With the changing power dynamics in Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has positioned itself as a significant player, raising concerns about its past affiliations with extremism. The U.S. remains wary of the potential resurgence of ISIS and the rise of a militant Islamic state in the region, necessitating ongoing military operations against extremist groups. The United States and Israel have both taken action to prevent extremist infiltration and to protect their interests, indicating the precarious balance of power in the area. These developments underscore the urgency for regional actors to engage constructively and work towards stability, while the U.S. aims to support a Syrian-led solution amid ongoing tensions.
CSIS’s Norman Roule, who served for thirty-four years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing significant programs relating to the Middle East, joins the podcast to discuss the actors that enabled the Assad regime to survive for so long, how bureaucratic rot in Russia and Iran enabled Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to move south so quickly, and actions the U.S. can take to support peace in the region.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode