Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Cem Karsan: What’s Really Driving This Market Boom?
Nov 19, 2024
Cem Karsan, founder of Kai Volatility, shares his expertise on market trends and investment strategies. He discusses the post-election market rally, emphasizing the influence of supply, demand, and structural flows on market dynamics. Karsan explains the significance of 'Vanna and Charm' in risk management and the enticing concept of owning far out-of-the-money options for potential high returns. He also examines the long-term effects of U.S. monetary policy on wealth inequality and navigates the complexities of dispersion trading in the tech sector.
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Quick takeaways
- Post-election market dynamics typically drive positive flows due to the removal of fear, resulting in substantial rallies regardless of political narratives.
- Market movements are influenced predominantly by structural trades from banks and hedge funds, highlighting the importance of supply and demand over media narratives.
Deep dives
Market Dynamics Post-Election
Post-election market dynamics reveal a significant structural bid for downside protection and insurance within the equity markets. The removal of fear from the market after election events typically leads to positive flow, regardless of the political narrative. Historical context shows that both Trump and Biden’s presidencies initially induced market worries, followed by substantial rallies. This cyclical pattern is further influenced by year-end rebalancing and seasonal trends, all contributing to a favorable market outlook after major political events.
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