Shane Goldmacher, a national political correspondent for The New York Times, discusses Ron DeSantis's challenge in the Iowa caucuses and the impact of Trump's trade policies on farming industry. Two friends debate whether Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis would be a better candidate for the Republican Party in the upcoming general election.
Ron DeSantis faces an uphill battle in the Iowa caucus due to Trump's significant lead and the loyalty of his supporters.
Supporters of alternative candidates like DeSantis struggle to sway dedicated Trump supporters who prioritize his outsider image and ability to defend American interests.
Deep dives
The Challenge of Beating Trump in the Iowa Caucus
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis faces a challenging contest in the Iowa caucus, as polls show Donald Trump with a significant lead. DeSantis has gone all-in on Iowa, campaigning extensively and gaining the support of the state's popular Republican governor and evangelical networks. While some former Trump rivals have dropped out, DeSantis sees Iowa as a make-or-break moment for his campaign. His strategy focuses on targeting the soft Trump supporters who are open to an alternative candidate. However, converting these voters has proved difficult, as many remain loyal to Trump despite experiencing the negative consequences of his trade policies. DeSantis's high-touch approach involves engaging with voters individually, touring farms, and listening to their concerns. While he has convinced some voters to support him, overcoming Trump's popularity remains a major hurdle.
The Dilemma of Supporting Trump or an Alternative
Lance Lillebridge, a farmer and former Trump supporter, has become a staunch advocate for Ron DeSantis after experiencing the negative effects of Trump's trade policies. Lance highlights the pain and financial strain he endured due to increased costs resulting from tariffs and a trade war with China. Despite this, his friend Nate Nading remains devoted to Trump, believing he is owed a second term and that he will defend American interests. This difference of opinion has not affected their friendship, but it reflects a larger divide within the Republican Party. Lance argues strategically, questioning whether Trump can win a general election and effectively govern amid opposition and retribution. While Nate places more importance on Trump's outsider image and his ability to stand up for America. The conversation demonstrates the challenge faced by supporters of alternative candidates like DeSantis in winning over dedicated Trump supporters.
Evaluating the Math of Republican Voters in 2024
As Iowa prepares for the caucuses, polls consistently show Trump as the likely winner, pointing to the miscalculation made by Republicans who believed there were more soft Trump supporters available. The assumption that these voters were open to alternatives to Trump has been proven wrong, as they remain overwhelmingly loyal to him. The strategic approach of candidates like DeSantis, who hoped to pull these voters away from Trump, has faced significant challenges. Public opinion has shown that Trump's lead among Republicans remains strong, with limited support for alternative candidates. This division within the Republican Party is likely to shape the outcome of the Iowa caucuses and the direction of the party moving forward.
The Impact of Trump's Nomination on the Republican Party
Although disappointed if Trump wins the Iowa caucuses, Lance recognizes the necessity of supporting the Republican nominee in the general election to prevent the continuation of Biden's policies. Despite disagreements over Trump, personal relationships like Lance and Nate's remain intact. Lance suggests that Trump's polarizing image and potential resistance from both Democrats and Republicans may hinder his ability to effectively govern if he secures the nomination. In contrast, Nate believes that Trump's confrontational approach is necessary to maintain international respect and protect American interests. This difference in perspective reflects the larger divergence within the Republican Party and the challenge faced by alternative candidates in convincing Trump supporters to rally behind them.
On Monday, Iowa holds the first contest in the Republican presidential nominating process and nobody will have more on the line than Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor staked his candidacy on a victory in Iowa, a victory that now seems increasingly remote.
Shane Goldmacher, a national political reporter for The Times, and the Daily producers Rob Szypko and Carlos Prieto explain what Mr. DeSantis’s challenge has looked like on the ground in Iowa.
Guest: Shane Goldmacher, a national political correspondent for The New York Times.
Background reading:
A weak night for Donald Trump? A Ron DeSantis flop? Gaming out Iowa.
For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.
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