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Thoughts on the Market

How Asian Markets View US Elections

Jul 24, 2024
Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley, examines the impact of the US elections on Asian markets. He discusses how higher tariffs, financial conditions, and US growth outcomes could affect Asia, especially focusing on the growth downside from tariffs. The podcast explores the potential consequences of different election outcomes for China and the broader region, emphasizing the importance of tariffs on various economic factors in Asia's growth.
04:17

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Higher tariffs in US elections impact Asian economies through growth downside, corporate confidence, and financial conditions.
  • Asian policy makers may respond to tariffs with fiscal easing before rate cuts due to limited monetary policy space.

Deep dives

Effect of US Presidential Elections on Asian Economies and Markets

The podcast discusses how the US Presidential election would impact Asian economies and markets through financial conditions, tariffs, and US growth outcomes. Of these channels, the top concern is the growth downside from higher tariffs due to the impact on corporate confidence, global demand, and financial conditions. Two potential scenarios are considered, one with tariffs on China and a second with tariffs on the rest of the world, both leading to adverse effects on Asia's growth. The podcast also mentions the implications of a Republican sweep in addition to tariffs and the possible shift in fiscal policy outcomes.

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