This podcast explores confirmation bias and introduces the concept of desirability bias. It discusses how our brains are wired for pattern recognition and how the internet enables finding confirming evidence for false beliefs. The evolution and function of confirmation bias are examined, along with the impact on perception and expectations. The speaker shares their frustration with enterprise software and introduces NetSuite as a solution. A study on supporters of Trump and Clinton reveals the influential role of desirability bias in shaping beliefs.
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Quick takeaways
Confirmation bias leads us to seek evidence that supports our beliefs, while desirability bias causes us to favor information that aligns with our preferences and desires.
Deep dives
Confirmation Bias and Its Impact on Beliefs
Confirmation bias is the tendency for humans to seek evidence that supports their beliefs while disregarding contradictory evidence. It is a crucial ingredient in self-delusion and motivated reasoning, often leading to maintaining outdated beliefs. This bias is pervasive and easily reinforced in the age of easily accessible information. Confirmation bias is particularly evident in cases where people seek evidence to support their beliefs instead of seeking disconfirmation. It plays a significant role in shaping our perception of reality and can make it challenging to change deeply held beliefs.
Desirability Bias: The Role of Preferences in Perception
Desirability bias, a bias closely related to confirmation bias, is the tendency to favor information that aligns with our preferences and desires. This bias emerges when there is a discrepancy between what we want to believe and what we actually believe. In situations where beliefs and desires are incongruent, desirability bias becomes more pronounced. The research suggests that desirability bias may be even more powerful than confirmation bias, as people are more likely to change their beliefs when presented with desirable information, even if it contradicts their prior beliefs.
The Nuanced Relationship Between Confirmation Bias and Desirability Bias
A recent study aimed to tease apart confirmation bias from desirability bias by examining the impact of congruent and incongruent beliefs and desires. The results showed that when people's beliefs and desires aligned, both confirmation bias and desirability bias were observable. However, when people had incongruent beliefs and desires, desirability bias emerged as the dominant factor in shaping their beliefs. This study suggests that desirability bias may have a stronger influence on belief formation when beliefs and desires do not align. Further research is needed to explore the implications of desirability bias in polarized ideological landscapes.
Confirmation bias is our tendency to seek evidence that supports our beliefs and confirms our assumptions when we could just as well seek disconfirmation of those beliefs and assumptions instead.
Confirmation is such a prevalent feature of human cognition, that until recently a second bias has been hidden in plain sight. Recent research suggests that something called desirability bias may be just as prevalent in our thinking. When future desires and past beliefs are incongruent, desire wins out.