Exploring the shift from decoupling to de-risking in global economies, focusing on reducing reliance on China. Discussing the origins and practical implications of de-risking, as well as the impact on European countries and the global economy. Delving into subversion risks in supply chains and contrasting EU and US approaches. Exploring future scenarios of de-risking policies towards China under different US administrations, and discussing economic statecraft and British political dysfunction.
De-risking involves reducing reliance on China for critical goods and preserving US technological edge.
De-risking strategies differ between China and the West, impacting global trade approaches and alliances.
Deep dives
Defining De-Risking and its Implications
De-risking is a strategic shift from decoupling with China due to its economic size and implications, seen as too big to separate from. Full decoupling may fragment the global economy and limit leverage in potential conflicts like around Taiwan. De-risking involves reducing reliance on China for critical goods, preserving US technological edge, and avoiding advances in Chinese military tech.
Identifying Risks in De-Risking Strategy
De-risking involves managing risks like subversion, corporate espionage, and tariff impact on supply chains. Companies need to navigate exposure to critical infrastructure risks and potential trade defense measures, along with complying with supply chain due diligence regulations to mitigate reputational risks.
China's De-Risking Strategy
China's de-risking strategies predate Western focus, targeting self-sufficiency in tech, financial insulation, and diversifying trade partners. Its focus on clean tech dominance and finance alignment with state goals illustrate a proactive approach to reduce reliance on the West, fostering leverage and minimizing risks.
Impact on Global Economy and Future Scenarios
The de-risking debate influences global trade approaches, with Europe's focus on a rules-based system contrasting US strategies. Continuity in de-risking policies is expected under different US administrations due to bipartisan consensus on China. Potential tariff escalation and trade tensions may affect global markets and alliances, while China benefits from Western fragmentation in trade practices.
A few years ago decoupling was all the rage, but Western economies are now moving towards de-risking as they strive to reduce their economic reliance on China. A United States keen to preserve its technological superiority leads the way – and aims to bring its allies along for the ride.
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR senior policy fellow, Agathe Demarais,and senior director at risk advisory firm Global Counsel, Stephen Adams, to discuss de-risking and its impact on European countries and the global economy. Where did the phrase originate? What does de-risking mean in practice? And what does an economic landscape conditioned by de-risking look like?