Capital Metals (LSE: CMET) - Unlocking Value in High-Grade Sri Lankan Mineral Sands

Interview with Gregory Martyr, Executive Chairman of Capital Metals PLC

Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/capital-metals-aimcmet-high-grade-mineral-sands-projects-path-to-production-5632

Recording date: 5th December 2024

Capital Metals is making significant progress on its Eastern Minerals project in Sri Lanka, which stands out as one of the highest-grade undeveloped mineral sands projects globally. The project boasts an impressive resource of 17.2 million tons at 17.6% heavy minerals, significantly above industry averages.

The company has recently revised its development strategy to accelerate the path to production, implementing a reduced capital expenditure plan that targets first production in the first half of 2026. The initial Stage 1 development requires a modest capital investment of US$20.9 million, with construction expected to take just 9-12 months once the final investment decision is made in Q2 2025.

The project's economics are particularly attractive, with payback anticipated in less than one year of production. The processing method is straightforward, utilizing simple gravity separation and water, without the need for complex chemical processes. This simplicity contributes to the project's low operating costs, further enhanced by the near-surface nature of the mineralization and minimal strip ratios.

Financing discussions are progressing well, with the company pursuing offtake-linked arrangements. Capital Metals is targeting US$10 million in pre-payments from potential customers, representing less than half of the total required capital expenditure. Importantly, the company does not anticipate needing to issue equity to fund the initial development.

The project is fully permitted, with an approved Environmental Impact Assessment and two mining licenses in place. Recent political changes in Sri Lanka have created a more favorable operating environment, with a new pro-business, anti-corruption government taking office.

Significant upside potential exists beyond the current resource. The company believes it can at least double the resource size through upcoming drilling campaigns, with early exploration work indicating mineralization extends well below the water table. Additionally, lowering the cut-off grade from 5% to 2% could substantially increase the resource while maintaining attractive margins.

The current project valuation shows considerable upside, with an estimated NPV per share of 36 pence compared to the current share price of around 2 pence. Despite current cyclical weakness in mineral sands prices, the project's high-grade nature positions it in the lowest cost quartile of global producers, ensuring strong margins even in challenging market conditions. As the mineral sands market faces potential supply challenges in the coming years, Capital Metals appears well-positioned to help fill this gap with its high-grade, low-cost operation.

View Capital Metals' company profile: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/capital-metals

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