HousingWire Daily Labor data is still driving mortgage rates, even in the shutdown
16 snips
Nov 7, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst specializing in mortgage, housing, and labor-market data, joins to delve into the dynamics shaping mortgage rates. He explains how the recent government shutdown impacts job data, shifting focus to alternative labor reports like ADP and Challenger. Logan highlights the connection between softness in labor indicators and falling mortgage rates, while also quelling fears of a major foreclosure crisis by referencing current credit conditions. The conversation underscores the importance of data-driven insights in a volatile market.
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Repo Market Scare Quickly Calmed
- Logan recounts the recent repo-market scare and social media panic comparing it to 1929, calling those reactions overblown.
- He notes the repo market normalized quickly and the Fed had tools to address liquidity if needed.
Secondary Labor Data Now Moves Markets
- With the government shutdown delaying official jobs data, markets are reacting to secondary private labor reports like ADP and Reveillon.
- Logan says those alternate data lines moved the 10-year yield and mortgage rates this week because traders became fidgety without BLS releases.
Soften Forward Guidance To Calm Markets
- Move forward guidance toward neutral to reduce volatility from small labor-data swings.
- Logan recommends easing messaging while keeping policy modestly restrictive to avoid market overreactions.