a16z Podcast a16z Podcast: Apple and Google Won the Mobile OS War, But a New War Has Already Begun
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Mar 13, 2014 
Benedict Evans, a longtime mobile analyst now with Andreessen Horowitz, delves into the new phase of the mobile market. He discusses how Apple and Google have triumphed in the OS war but reveals the fresh battles brewing for entrepreneurs. The conversation touches on consumer behavior in iOS versus Android, highlighting how iPhone users engage differently. Evans draws parallels between Apple's premium strategy and high-end car branding, and emphasizes the challenges in app visibility that mirror the early internet landscape.
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iOS And Android Dominate The Market
- The mobile OS war is essentially over: iOS and Android dominate global smartphone shipments.
- Expect ~800M iOS and 2–3B Android devices in use, leaving small residual markets for others.
Mobile Dynamics Differ From The PC Era
- Smartphone platform dynamics differ from PCs because phones are bought by individuals for UX, not corporate spec-driven procurement.
- That individual buying behavior gives Apple durable product-market fit unlike Apple's early PC struggles.
Where Customers Are Determines Developer Focus
- Developers and services choose platforms based on where significant customers are, not raw market share.
- Small OSs (Windows Phone, BlackBerry) lose support because their user bases are too small to justify effort.