HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on why the construction recession hasn't happened yet
Mar 19, 2025
In today's discussion, Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst specializing in housing market trends, shares insights on why construction layoffs haven't materialized despite prevailing economic challenges. He delves into the complexities of new construction data and the influence of the Federal Reserve on the market. Topics include the stability of residential construction amidst rising material costs, low inventory levels affecting pricing, and the cautious outlook for the industry. Their conversation sheds light on the balance between market stability and the uncertainties posed by economic fluctuations.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Unusual Housing Cycle
- The housing market hasn't followed typical recession patterns.
- Construction workers haven't been laid off despite falling permits and starts.
Reasons for Housing Market Resilience
- Several factors explain the unusual housing market trends, including stabilized new home sales and increased multifamily permits.
- Long completion times and low inventory have also helped builders.
Predicting Layoffs
- Watch for specific indicators like new home sales dropping below 2022 levels or builder confidence falling below 20.
- These could signal upcoming construction worker layoffs.