HousingWire Daily
Logan Mohtashami on why the construction recession hasn't happened yet
Mar 19, 2025
In today's discussion, Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst specializing in housing market trends, shares insights on why construction layoffs haven't materialized despite prevailing economic challenges. He delves into the complexities of new construction data and the influence of the Federal Reserve on the market. Topics include the stability of residential construction amidst rising material costs, low inventory levels affecting pricing, and the cautious outlook for the industry. Their conversation sheds light on the balance between market stability and the uncertainties posed by economic fluctuations.
30:12
Episode guests
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
- Despite low levels of housing permits, the stability of the construction workforce suggests unconventional economic patterns are at play in the housing market.
- Rising material costs and federal policies are complicating builders' pricing strategies, contributing to uncertainty about future construction activity.
Deep dives
Current Challenges in New Housing Construction
The analysis of the current state of new housing construction highlights that despite falling interest rates, new home sales have not seen significant growth. Recent builder surveys indicate a decline in housing permits and starts, contradicting traditional expectations where housing markets lead into recessions. The workforce in residential construction remains stable, which is unusual given the persistent low levels of housing permits and completions. This complexity in the housing cycle suggests that external factors, such as remodeling demand and varying permit rates between single-family and multifamily projects, have created a unique scenario that defies conventional economic patterns.
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
