Macro Sunday #38 - MELT UP! Special guest: Mads Eberhardt
Feb 25, 2024
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Assets are melting up as optimism around the business cycle improves. Discussion on trading the cyclical comeback. Crypto assets celebrating the uptick post-launch of Bitcoin ETFs. Insights on market growth, NVIDIA's dominance, and strategic stockpiling. Strategies for cryptocurrency investment amid global geopolitical shifts. Analysis of US approval decision, European support for Ukraine, government spending impact on interest rates, investment opportunities in a growing economy.
European support for Ukraine leads to increased military spending across Europe, impacting ECB and monetary policies.
China's rate cuts provide temporary relief, suggesting trading strategies with raw materials and Korean assets as safer alternatives.
Deep dives
European Support for Ukraine and Impact on European Central Bank
The escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia have led to significant European support for Ukraine, particularly from countries like Poland, Czech Republic, and the Baltic nations. This support includes a notable increase in military spending and rearmament efforts across Europe. This situation also impacts the European Central Bank and discussions on interest rates, fiscal policies, and monetary policies, with potential implications for the overall policy mix.
European Inflation Trends and Monetary Policy Dilemma
Current nowcasts indicate a monthly inflation rate of approximately 0.3% for the Euro-area, showing progress towards the ECB's 2% target. However, any potential interest rate cuts are dependent on softer inflation numbers in the upcoming period. ECB members have expressed hesitance to move ahead of the Fed, indicating a cautious approach influenced by decisions made in the US.
China's Rate Cuts and Trading Strategies
Recent rate cuts in China are expected to provide temporary relief to local assets. Optimal trading strategies include buying raw materials such as copper as a Chinese proxy bet. The signs of improving sentiment in China suggest opportunities in Korean assets as a safer alternative for trading the Chinese market by proxy.
Trade Ideas and Market Analysis
Trade ideas focus on navigating the current economic landscape, with recommendations to avoid fixed income investments due to fiscal policy changes. Instead, investments in construction, production, and copper are highlighted for potential gains. Risk-averse trading suggestions involve trading by proxy for Chinese assets in alternative markets like Korea.
Assets are melting up right, left and center as the optimism around the business cycle is improving. Is it fair to assume that countries outside of the US are improving? And how do you trade the cyclical comeback? Crypto assets are also celebrating the cyclical uptick and we are joined by Mads Eberhardt to discuss the Crypto market post the launch of Bitcoin ETFs.