How Can You Prepare for High-Impact Unknown Events?
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Feb 8, 2025
Discover how to prepare for unexpected high-impact events by identifying hidden vulnerabilities. Learn about the 'curse question' to envision potential problems and transform them into strategic advantages. Explore the concept of antifragility, turning surprises into growth opportunities. Understand the dangers of medium-confidence assumptions through an 'assumption audit.' Dive into the importance of preparing for a range of possibilities, rather than predicting specific outcomes, and find ways to navigate risks while uncovering opportunities.
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question_answer ANECDOTE
Jonathan's Father's Health Scare
Jonathan Cutrell's father experienced a cardiac event, leading to triple bypass surgery.
Fortunately, there was no permanent heart damage, and he's expected to recover well.
insights INSIGHT
The Inevitability of Black Swan Events
Unpredictable events ("black swans") are inevitable and can significantly impact our lives.
Instead of trying to predict them, focus on preparing for their potential impact.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
The Curse Question
Use the "curse question": Imagine a realistic negative scenario affecting you or your project.
Identify the first signs of this "curse" to uncover hidden vulnerabilities and potential threats.
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Upstream explores the psychological forces that push us into a cycle of response rather than prevention. Dan Heath introduces the concept of 'problem blindness' and highlights successes of thinkers who have overcome these obstacles by switching to an upstream mindset. Examples include an online travel website reducing customer service calls, a school district cutting dropout rates, a European nation reducing teenage substance abuse, and an EMS system improving response times. The book delivers practical solutions for preventing problems rather than reacting to them.
Reset
Reclaiming the Internet for Civil Society
Ronald Deibert
This episode includes practical techniques to prepare for the unexpected by identifying vulnerabilities and building resilience, using the "curse question" and the "assumption audit" to help you turn potential problems into strategic advantages.
• Uncover how to use a "curse question" to expose vulnerabilities you didn't know you had, by imagining realistic negative scenarios and what could go wrong. • Learn how to move beyond resilience to antifragility, turning unexpected events into opportunities for growth and strategic advantage, by making them benefitial rather than harmful. • Discover why your medium-confidence assumptions might be the most dangerous and how an "assumption audit" can help you rate them and their potential impact if they are wrong, to help you better understand your weaknesses. • Explore why preparing for a range of possibilities, including black swan events, is more effective than trying to predict specific outcomes, and how to spot opportunities in the unexpected. • Learn why focusing on areas of fragility and identifying risks can be more useful than focusing on trying to avoid negative events altogether. • Understand that counterfactuals can help you challenge your assumptions and create more robust plans.
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