Prof John Mearsheimer: Trade Tensions Explode Trump v. China

Trump imposed 104% tariffs on China, emphasizing his strategy of retaliating aggressively when challenged.

He believes China wants to make a deal but doesn’t know how to start negotiations.

Trump is open to negotiations and claims he will be “gracious” if China reaches out.

China’s Reaction:

In response, China imposed 84% tariffs on the U.S., signaling they will not be intimidated and are ready to push back hard.

Expert Commentary (Prof. John Mearsheimer):

China and other nations (Russia, Iran, North Korea) understand Trump only respects toughness.

The current situation is a classic case of hardball diplomacy, with both sides posturing strongly.

Strategic View:

Trump sees short-term economic pain as necessary for long-term gain:

Absolute gain: Rebuilding U.S. manufacturing will benefit America economically.

Relative gain: China will be hurt more, shifting the power balance in favor of the U.S.

Skepticism from Economists:

Most economists see these tariffs as a "boneheaded" move, likely to hurt the global economy and disrupt trade without clear benefits.

Long-Term Uncertainty:

The true effects of these tariffs are unpredictable, similar to how sanctions on Russia didn’t have the intended effect.

Diplomatic Repercussions:

Trump's aggressive, transactional approach undermines trust in U.S. reliability as a partner.

Allies in East and Southeast Asia (e.g., South Korea, Vietnam) may begin to reassess their ties with the U.S.

Vietnam Case Study:

Vietnam, heavily reliant on U.S. trade, is panicked by the tariffs despite being eager to cooperate.

Damaging economic ties with Vietnam may also undermine important security alliances in the region.

John Bolton’s View:

Bolton criticizes Trump for eroding decades of international trust and says this creates an opening for China.

The issue isn’t just economic—it’s about the U.S. losing its reputation as a reliable global leader.

Final Thoughts:

The consensus is that while Trump’s approach may yield some leverage, the cost to U.S. credibility and alliances could be profound and lasting

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