Logan Mohtashami on existing home sales and housing demand
Nov 25, 2024
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Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, shares his expertise in existing home sales and housing market dynamics. He discusses how declining mortgage rates are influencing sales and the potential for market growth by 2025. The conversation dives into the role of economic indicators and Federal Reserve policies on mortgage rates, and the upcoming housing economic summit in Dallas. Mohtashami also analyzes the implications of rumored economic appointments on housing stability and construction. A must-listen for market enthusiasts!
Improving existing home sales show a positive correlation with mortgage rates approaching 6%, indicating potential growth in housing demand.
Economic indicators like the 10-year yield are crucial for forecasting market trends, suggesting increased home sales could materialize by 2025.
Deep dives
Current Trends in Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales are showing signs of improvement as mortgage rates trend towards 6%, which has positively affected pricing dynamics. Despite a low benchmark for home sales, the improvement in demand is notable, leading to a year-over-year growth that contrasts with previous downturns. Analysts emphasize that understanding the shifts in purchase applications can provide insight into future market movements and supply-demand equilibrium. As low sales levels persist, even incremental changes in mortgage rates can significantly influence market activity.
Impact of Mortgage Rates on Housing Demand
The relationship between mortgage rates and housing demand is complex but crucial, with a clear emphasis on the need for lower rates to stimulate sales growth. Data illustrates how movement towards a 6% mortgage rate can ignite demand despite prevailing concerns about economic stability. Historical patterns suggest that as affordability increases through lower rates, we might see a resurgence in buyer interest, simplifying previously stagnant market conditions. Forward-looking metrics like purchase applications serve as a key indicator for potential market shifts, reinforcing the need for stakeholders to remain vigilant.
Economic Factors Influencing the Housing Market
Economic dynamics, particularly the behavior of the 10-year yield, play a significant role in shaping the mortgage rate landscape and housing market outlook. Analysts highlight that as the yield stabilizes and spreads improve, the potential for increased home sales by 2025 becomes more palpable. Despite challenges, the housing market is navigating towards a promising trajectory, marked by improving supply metrics and a gradual recovery in demand. Understanding these economic indicators is essential for professionals aiming to forecast market trends and inform their strategies accordingly.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about existing home sales and what housing demand today is showing us about the spring.
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