Bill English, editor of the ebook, discusses how central banks responded to post-pandemic inflation. Topics include contrasting approaches of emerging vs. advanced economies, forecasting inflation during supply shocks, and tools used by central banks like interest rates and asset purchases. Lessons for policymakers in dealing with future inflation challenges are emphasized.
Central banks learned that looking through supply shocks without policy adjustments is not viable long-term.
During the post-pandemic inflation surge, central banks predominantly relied on interest rates as the primary tool for inflation management.
Deep dives
Lesson 1: Improving Inflation Forecasting
Forecasting inflation post-pandemic was challenging due to unprecedented global shocks. Nonlinearity in the Phillips curve and the interaction between supply shocks and slack emerged as crucial factors. New data and methods focusing on price change frequency have been identified for more accurate inflation predictions.
Lesson 2: Responding to Supply Shocks
Central banks learned that looking through supply shocks without policy adjustments is not viable long-term. Large and prolonged shocks can undermine confidence and lead to persistent inflation issues. Despite looking through inflation, necessary policy adjustments to address underlying overheating were crucial.
Lesson 3: Utilizing Interest Rates for Inflation Control
During the post-pandemic inflation surge, central banks predominantly relied on interest rates as the primary tool for inflation management. Quantitative tightening (QT) was used passively in the background, highlighting central banks' confidence and familiarity with rate adjustments over QT measures.
What do we learn from the way central banks around the world responded to post-pandemic inflation? A new ebook from CEPR Press collects contributions from both academics and the central bankers who took the decisions. It explores what they did and how well it worked – and suggests some lessons that will help policymakers cope with the next inflationary episode. Bill English, one of the editors, talks to Tim Phillips.