2026 Market Outlook (Ep. 169)

After a volatile first half and another year of strong headline returns, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to assess what actually shaped markets in 2025 and what that foundation means heading into 2026.

They revisit why early-year turbulence caught so many investors off guard, how companies navigated tariffs and margin pressure more effectively than expected, and why earnings growth remained the quiet backbone of the rally. The conversation then turns forward, covering their 2026 outlook for stocks and bonds, the role of AI-driven capital spending, global market leadership, and why sentiment continues to lag reality even as breadth improves. Along the way, they discuss inflation stickiness, labor market crosscurrents, policy tailwinds, and where diversification still matters most as the cycle matures.

Key Takeaways:

 • Earnings did the heavy lifting: Profit growth and margin resilience, not valuation expansion, powered market gains
 • Volatility followed the script: Early-year drawdowns fit historical patterns despite widespread surprise
 • Global leadership expanded: International markets and cyclicals outpaced expectations as breadth improved
 • AI spending surged: Capital expenditures accelerated across major tech platforms, reinforcing long-term growth trends
 • 2026 outlook remains constructive: Above-average equity returns and modest bond gains hinge on steady growth without recession

Jump to:

0:00 — Setting The Stage For 2025

1:48 — Tariffs, Liberation Day, And Market Bottom

4:30 — Sentiment, Concentration Myths, And Breadth

9:45 — Speculation Falls, AI Leaders Repriced

14:45 — Small Caps, Transports, And Rate Cuts

22:30 — IPO Drought, Private Markets, And Valuations

27:20 — Media Moments, Gold, And Diversifiers

32:20 — Fed Cuts, Dots, And Labor Revisions

40:10 — 2026 Playbook: Mid Caps, Financials, Healthcare

46:30 — Global Vs. U.S., EM Tilt, And Policy

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com