What Falling Gas Prices Signal for Bitcoin & The 2026 Midterm Elections

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Dec 18, 2025

Explore why Bitcoin shows resilience despite recent weaknesses. Discover how energy prices and inflation expectations impact Bitcoin's future. Nik dives into the significance of lower oil prices and their connection to consumer inflation. Plus, insights on how political dynamics and prediction markets may influence the 2026 midterms. He connects the dots between U.S. energy policy, Treasury yields, and the overall economic landscape, highlighting implications for Bitcoin in a shifting macro environment.

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ADVICE

Use A Repeatable Framework

Have a framework to avoid getting shaken out by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
Use systematic models like TBL Liquidity to separate macro drivers from noise.

ANECDOTE

Sovereign Funds Buying Dips

Larry Fink suggested sovereign funds, including Abu Dhabi, bought IBIT across price dips.
Nik treats that as evidence large, long-term holders are supporting Bitcoin's bull trend.

INSIGHT

GSE Recapitalization Is A Heavy Lift

Fannie and Freddie remain deeply undercapitalized versus regulatory requirements.
A meaningful IPO alone would barely address the large capital shortfall, per TCW's analysis.

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