Why Lower Inflation Lowers Treasury Yields

In this episode, Nik breaks down why Bitcoin remains resilient despite year-to-date weakness by applying the TBL Liquidity framework. He walks through inflation expectations, energy prices, Treasury yields, and housing costs to explain how policy choices around oil production, affordability, and fiscal math shape liquidity conditions. Nik shows why lower inflation is the key driver for lower yields, how energy prices feed directly into CPI, and what calmer bond markets could mean for Bitcoin heading into 2026.

Episode links:

• https://www.tcw.com/-/media/Downloads/com/Insights/2025/251006-IPO-or-IOU.PDF?rev=9a6fd213f53d4bbc87c5767890483fcb&sc_lang=en
• https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/speaker-johnson-has-a-health-care-plan-heres-whats-in-it-5958410
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sovereign-wealth-funds-were-buyers-173202044.html
• Polymarket: https://poly.market/YCSQFCv

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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB

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