VoxTalks Economics S8 Ep1: Can AI forecasts improve crisis response?
Jan 3, 2025
Margherita Philipp, a data scientist at EconAI, and Hannes Mueller from the Barcelona School of Economics, dive into how AI can revolutionize crisis response. They discuss the promise of anticipatory action for mitigating disasters and the challenges faced in predicting crises, especially those related to climate and conflict. The duo also tackles the balance between explainability and performance in AI forecasting, emphasizing the ethical implications of forecasts in policymaking. Their insights highlight the importance of trust and data in humanitarian efforts.
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Predicting Ongoing Conflicts
- Hannes Mueller and Margherita Philipp discuss the challenge of predicting humanitarian needs in ongoing conflicts like those in Ukraine and Yemen.
- These are considered "easy" cases for predictability, but harder in terms of resource allocation.
Tracking Anticipatory Action
- Humanitarian organizations struggle to track anticipatory action, hindering cost-benefit analysis.
- Limited studies suggest potential cost savings, but more comprehensive data is needed.
Bangladesh Flood Prediction
- In Bangladesh, OCHAR uses water level and rainfall data for flood prediction and anticipatory action.
- This highlights the complexity of predicting needs and tailoring aid accordingly.