At Any Rate Global Commodities: Tariff shockwaves churn crude and copper markets
Aug 1, 2025
Trade tensions are shaping the global commodities landscape. Recent U.S. tariffs on refined copper are stirring the market, impacting copper prices and imports. The podcast dives into how geopolitical tensions, particularly around Russian oil, are influencing trade dynamics. With a focus on oil routing complexities and OPEC's limited production capacity, they forecast price volatility ahead. Listeners will gain insights into the interconnectedness of these global markets and what potential stabilization might look like by year's end.
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Copper Tariff Shock and Market Reaction
- The U.S. copper tariff decision shocked markets by exempting refined copper cathode, contrary to expectations of a full tariff including cathode.
- This caused a sharp price drop as the market had factored in a premium on COMEX copper that disappeared after the announcement.
Copper Inventory Destocking Expected
- Removal of tariff on refined copper allows U.S. copper imports to flow more freely onto LME warehouses.
- This will enable a destocking period as inventory built up this year is gradually drawn down, reducing import demand going forward.
Limits of Copper Tariff On Self-Sufficiency
- The tariff aims to boost U.S. copper product self-sufficiency, but is unlikely to significantly affect overall copper input self-sufficiency.
- Announced scrap export restrictions are minimal given existing domestic scrap usage rates and concentrate processing.