Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work

An X-Rated Account of Twitter with Kurt Wagner

Feb 3, 2025

Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird', dives into the tumultuous journey of Twitter, now rebranded as X, particularly under Elon Musk's controversial ownership. He shares insights about Twitter's intriguing origins and its struggles to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta. The conversation touches on missed opportunities, leadership challenges, and the ongoing battle to balance free speech with content moderation. Wagner’s perspective sheds light on the platform's evolving identity and its future in social media.

47:29

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Kurt Wagner

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Quick takeaways

Twitter, initially designed for brief updates, struggled to monetize effectively compared to competitors like Meta due to its advertising model.

Elon Musk's takeover marked a significant shift for Twitter into 'X', which has raised concerns about management strategies and user engagement.

Content moderation under Musk has become controversial, impacting brand safety and leading to challenges in preserving advertiser trust and revenue.

Deep dives

The Evolution of Twitter to X

Twitter was originally conceived as a platform for users to share brief status updates, evolving from a project aimed at podcasting. Created in 2006 by a group of engineers at Odeo, with Jack Dorsey being a principal figure, it quickly gained traction among users who enjoyed sharing their daily activities. Despite its growth, Twitter struggled to monetize effectively compared to other social media platforms, which adapted rapidly to changing digital advertising needs. Over time, it transitioned from Twitter to X under Elon Musk's ownership, indicating a shift in strategy and branding, while its fundamental user interaction principles remain similar.

Intro

3min

The Evolution of Twitter

5min

Twitter's Scale and Struggles in the Social Media Landscape

21min

Challenges Facing X: The Impact of Leadership on Brand Safety and Revenue

4min

Navigating Ad Revenue Challenges in Social Media

5min

Navigating the Trade-Off Between Attention and Value in Sports Media

2min

Twitter's Challenges: Bots, Free Speech, and Accountability

10min

Challenges in Commercial Maintenance and Solutions for Better Sleep

2min

Who doesn’t like to talk about Twitter and Tweets? Word of mouth (or tweet) is the secret sauce of its success. But has it ever been successful? And if it hasn’t, how do you gauge the impact of Elon Musk’s shock therapy over the past two years? Journalist Kurt Wagner joins to share his deep dive profile of the tortured history of Twitter. [Repeat from May, 2024]

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

This episode of Bubble Trouble features a conversation with Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird,' a book about Twitter's tumultuous history and evolution, particularly under Elon Musk's ownership. The hosts, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, delve into Twitter’s origins, its struggle to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta, and the significant influence of Jack Dorsey’s leadership style on the platform's direction. They discuss the platform's missed opportunities, such as Vine and Periscope, and how it became a place where 'good ideas go to die.' The discussion also covers Musk's takeover, his attempts to transform Twitter into 'X', and the challenges of balancing free speech with the need for content moderation and advertiser appeal. Wagner shares insights on the potential future of 'X', the impact of Musk's leadership on the platform's advertising and user engagement, and the skepticism surrounding the 'everything app' concept Musk envisions.

00:00 Introduction

01:02 Part One

01:02 Deep Dive with Kurt Wagner: The Story of Twitter

02:36 The Origins and Evolution of Twitter

06:20 Twitter's User Base and Business Model Explored

09:10 The Challenges of Twitter's Business Model

14:10 Board Dynamics and Google's Influence on Twitter

18:03 Extravagant Spending and Corporate Culture at Twitter

21:13 Reflections on Twitter's Stock Performance

23:47 The Almost Disney-Twitter Deal: A Glimpse into Corporate Negotiations

24:29 Twitter's Quest for a Savior and Its Struggle for Independence

25:53 Missed Opportunities: The Story of Vine and Periscope

27:27 Part Two

27:27 Transition to Part Two: The Elon Musk Era at Twitter

27:49 The Challenges of Rebranding Twitter to X and Musk's Controversial Leadership

28:32 The Impact of Elon Musk's Actions on Twitter's Ad Revenue and Brand Safety

36:52 The Struggle with Bots and Spam: Has It Gotten Worse?

40:06 Free Speech Under Musk: A Double-Edged Sword

44:26 The Everything App Ambition: A Skeptical View

46:33 Closing Thoughts and Acknowledgements

47:01 Credits

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