What Hope Do the Ceasefire Proposal and Minerals Deal Offer Ukraine?

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine. They unpack what is known about the U.S. proposal and its potential implications, including the prospects of U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula and Kyiv agreeing not to pursue membership in NATO. They examine Ukraine and its European backers’ counterproposal and the U.S. response, and Moscow’s position. They also explore Washington’s negotiating tactics, including its threat to withdraw from the talks if an agreement isn’t reached soon, and the minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine. Finally, they discuss the likelihood of Russia agreeing to a ceasefire given Putin’s belief he has the battlefield advantage, and whether Moscow’s position on negotiations to end the war has shifted.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our recent statement “Deal or No Deal, a Basis for Talks about Peace in Ukraine” and our Ukraine country page.

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