The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 356. What This Week Means for CRE: Government Shutdown, AI’s Impact on Employees, CMBS Delinquency Rate Pulls Back, Bank Data Insights & More
22 snips
Oct 3, 2025 This week dives into the potential economic impacts of a U.S. government shutdown on commercial real estate. The ongoing AI discussion highlights layoffs at Accenture and how companies like Citi are training employees for new roles. Plus, good news for CMBS with delinquency rates dropping slightly for the first time since February. Retail updates reveal IKEA's ambitious expansion in Manhattan and significant changes at Westfield San Francisco Centre. Also, there's a deep look at a large outlet loan moving to special servicing amid evolving market dynamics.
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Episode notes
Shutdowns Create A Data Vacuum
- A U.S. government shutdown causes a data vacuum that handicaps policymaking and market decisions.
- Short shutdowns have limited macro impact but longer ones erode confidence and regional activity, especially in government-centric markets.
Rely On Private High-Frequency Data
- Expect the Fed to focus on shutdown length and private high-frequency indicators when deciding policy.
- Use ADP, ISM, PMI and Beige Book data to inform short-term rate expectations.
AI Is Reshaping Labor Demand
- AI-driven automation is already reducing headcount in consulting and mundane analyst tasks.
- The biggest labor risk is to younger cohorts who perform routine tasks that AI can replace.