The Rules of Investing Why this ex-central banker fears a second (and even bigger) mistake
If there's one group of people who cop a lot of flak in financial markets, it's central bankers. Whether you believe they get too much or too little of it, they're the ones who print the money and make decisions that influence the wallets of billions of people. That was particularly true in 2022, as many on the economic spectrum were caught unawares by the surge in inflation (and its persistence thereafter).
And depending on which central bank you most closely watch, they may also provide intentionally vague answers - or at least, avoid giving the direct and certain feedback you desire.
A beautiful example of this stems from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In his post-decision press conference last week, Powell argued "certainty is not appropriate". In layman terms, he's simply saying that singular data prints are not Gospel, even if financial markets may see otherwise.
Now, at this most crucial time in financial markets, EFG Bank Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach has granted us an exclusive interview about the state of the global economy and what central banks are doing as a result.
Gerlach was the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland between 2011 and 2015. As part of this role, he also sat in on the meetings of the European Central Bank under its former President Mario Draghi.
You can read an edited summary below:
Timecodes:
1:00 - Why were central bankers caught so off guard by the inflation surge?
3:38 - Could central bankers have better forecast this mess?
4:51 - Did central banks react quickly and forcefully enough to avert a recession?
7:29 - Would you have handled things differently if you were still in your old role?
8:08 - What is the risk central banks will make a second big mistake?
11:17 - What advice would you give investors who want to understand central bank messaging better?
16:46 - Will the Eurozone avoid a deep recession?
18:42 - Will China’s reopening save Australia from the global recession?
20:12 - How has your asset allocation strategy changed?
23:47 - What’s one macro theme investors are not talking about enough?