Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 317: George Selgin on Trump Tariffs, Fed Independence and Dollar Vulnerability
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Jul 17, 2025 
George Selgin, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a prominent economics professor, discusses striking parallels between Trump’s policies and the New Deal era. He highlights the lessons from history, particularly regarding tariff strategies, and warns about the complexities of trade deficits. The podcast also dives into the tensions between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, emphasizing the risks of politicizing monetary policy. Finally, Selgin offers new perspectives on the New Deal, challenging common misconceptions about its impact on economic recovery.
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Nuanced New Deal Assessment
- The New Deal's impact on recovery was mixed, helped in some areas but also hindered quick recovery.
- It avoided extreme views of either fully positive or wholly negative assessments of the New Deal's effectiveness.
FDR and Trump Parallels
- Both FDR and Trump claimed extensive executive power but varied in policy impact.
- Trump's trade policies mimic earlier tariff errors and generate harmful business uncertainty.
New Deal's Business Impact
- Early New Deal banking resolutions helped business confidence.
- Later New Deal policies were anti-business, increasing uncertainty and delaying recovery.
