The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: Ukraine’s Past and Future with NATO
Dec 4, 2024
Mary Sarotte, an esteemed historian and professor at Johns Hopkins University, dives deep into Ukraine's long-standing pursuit of NATO membership. She uncovers valuable lessons from Norway and West Germany's historical contexts. The discussion navigates the intricate challenges Ukraine faces amid Russian aggression, emphasizing the vital role of public support for President Zelensky. Sarotte also addresses the implications of Ukraine's potential NATO membership and what it means for regional stability and deterrence in today's geopolitical landscape.
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Clinton's Early Focus on Ukraine
- Bill Clinton initially considered Ukraine's NATO membership in the 1990s, viewing Ukraine as crucial for European peace.
- This was driven by Ukraine's size, agricultural importance, and its status as the third-largest nuclear power after independence.
Shifting Geopolitics and Ukraine
- Five factors shifted Clinton's stance on Ukraine's NATO membership: Yeltsin's use of force, Chechnya invasion, Eastern European pressure, Republican election victory, and Ukraine's denuclearization.
- These factors made Russia seem unreliable and Ukraine less critical, leading to a 'line across Europe' excluding Ukraine from NATO.
Bucharest Summit's Missteps
- The 2008 Bucharest summit declared Ukraine and Georgia would join NATO without concrete steps, effectively making them targets.
- This indecisiveness, which was a cautionary tale for Sweden and Finland, contributed to later conflicts.
