Lawfare Daily: Ukraine’s Past and Future with NATO
Dec 4, 2024
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Mary Sarotte, an esteemed historian and professor at Johns Hopkins University, dives deep into Ukraine's long-standing pursuit of NATO membership. She uncovers valuable lessons from Norway and West Germany's historical contexts. The discussion navigates the intricate challenges Ukraine faces amid Russian aggression, emphasizing the vital role of public support for President Zelensky. Sarotte also addresses the implications of Ukraine's potential NATO membership and what it means for regional stability and deterrence in today's geopolitical landscape.
Ukraine's pursuit of NATO membership reflects deep historical roots and has evolved significantly since the early 2000s amidst Russian aggression.
The Bucharest summit of 2008 serves as a critical lesson for Ukraine, highlighting the dangers of ambiguous NATO commitments that can provoke Russian hostility.
Historical cases like Norway and West Germany offer strategic insights for Ukraine to navigate NATO integration while maintaining its sovereignty and addressing geopolitical risks.
Deep dives
Ukraine's Quest for NATO Membership
Ukraine's pursuit of NATO membership has deep historical roots, beginning notably in the early 2000s under President Viktor Yushchenko. Following the Orange Revolution, Yushchenko's government made efforts to align Ukraine with NATO, culminating in an official request for integration during the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest. However, this summit ended with disappointment as NATO failed to offer a clear membership action plan, leaving Ukraine's aspirations in limbo. Despite the ongoing war and Russia's aggression, the longing for NATO membership remains a cornerstone of Ukraine's foreign policy, even enshrined within its constitution.
Historical Context of Ukraine and NATO
The historical context surrounding Ukraine's relationship with NATO is multifaceted, beginning as early as the 1990s after the Cold War. Initially, U.S. President Bill Clinton recognized Ukraine’s significance, particularly after its temporary status as a major nuclear power following the Soviet collapse. However, geopolitical shifts, including Russian military actions and regional anxieties, led to a complicated dynamic where Ukraine found itself on the 'wrong side' of a new security divide in Europe. This complex backdrop set the stage for Ukraine's persistent challenges in gaining NATO membership despite a growing sense of urgency amid heightened tensions with Russia.
The Bucharest Summit's Consequences
The Bucharest summit of 2008 proved to be a pivotal moment for Ukraine, as it left nations like Ukraine and Georgia with aspirations for NATO membership but without concrete commitments. The failure to translate aspirations into actionable steps created vulnerabilities, further enticing Russian aggression against both countries. Critics argue that this lack of definitive guarantees drew perilous attention from Russia, exemplified by subsequent military actions in Georgia and Ukraine. The summit's indecisiveness has since cautioned other countries considering NATO bids, as they now recognize the risks associated with ambiguous promises.
Potential Pathways for Ukraine's NATO Membership
Proposals for facilitating Ukraine's NATO membership focus on historical precedents, specifically the cases of Norway and West Germany that embraced unique arrangements within NATO. Norway’s acceptance into the alliance involved self-imposed limitations on foreign military presence, effectively allowing it to balance its NATO membership with its geographical reality. Meanwhile, West Germany was able to join NATO without formally recognizing its division, thus offering Ukraine a potential strategy for future membership discussions. Drawing from these examples, the narrative suggests a combined approach may help Ukraine navigate the complexities of NATO integration while maintaining a focus on sovereignty.
Navigating Political Dynamics in NATO Discussions
The process for a nation to become a NATO member involves navigating extensive political dynamics, requiring unanimous support from existing member states. For Ukraine, the internal Ukrainian sentiment towards NATO membership has evolved significantly, particularly in light of ongoing conflict with Russia. The political challenge lies in balancing the aspiration for NATO membership against the geopolitical risks posed by Putin's Russia. Furthermore, establishing a security line that defines NATO’s Article 5 applicability remains crucial, as Ukraine and its allies seek to secure concrete military guarantees amid fears of escalating aggression if NATO infrastructure is perceived to encroach upon Russian interests.
Ukraine has been pursuing NATO membership for many years. But what realistic options does it have in light of Russia’s full-scale invasion? Historian and author of a book about tensions between the NATO and Russia “Not One Inch,” Mary Sarotte, sits down with Lawfare Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina to describe what lessons Ukraine can take from the cases of Norway and West Germany.